New York 17th

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the independent candidate wins (<0.1%)

See the national overview

Forecasted turnout

Partisan lean

# How the forecast has changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.

Chance of winning

Popular vote share

KEY

AVERAGE

80% CHANCE OF FALLING IN RANGE

# What goes into the

classic forecast in the New York 17th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the New York 17th

	Sim. score	Polling avg.
CT-4	77	—
NY-4	72	—
MA-8	65	—
NJ-6	63	—
IL-10	62	—
NJ-12	59	—
CT-1	58	—
CT-3	58	—
MA-4	56	—
NY-3	55	—

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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