New York 22nd

Lean D

2 in 3

Chance the Democrat wins (67.4%)

1 in 3

Chance the Republican wins (32.6%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New York 22nd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+3.9

    Adjusted polls

  • R+6.5

    CANTOR

  • D+3.5

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.8

    Experts

  • R+0.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+3.1

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+2.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New York 22nd

We've collected four polls for the New York 22nd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Brindisi
Tenney
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 20-26
8/20-26
Siena College499LV
0.99
46%44%D+2.0 0.2 0.2 D+2.5
Apr. 23-27
4/23-27
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics358LV
0.12
55%45%D+10.0 1.0 0.2 D+11.1
Mar. 8-12
3/8-12
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (Democracy Corps)
D
500LV
0.09
50%44%D+6.0 0.7 1.3 D+5.6
Nov. 9-10
11/9-10
Public Policy Polling
D
599V
0.03
47%41%D+6.0 0.2 0.2 1.5 D+3.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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