New York 24th

Likely R

1 in 6

Chance the Democrat wins (16.3%)

5 in 6

Chance the Republican wins (83.7%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the New York 24th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+8.5

    Adjusted polls

  • D+4.3

    CANTOR

  • R+5.2

    Fundamentals

  • R+10.2

    Experts

  • R+5.8

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+6.4

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+7.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the New York 24th

We've collected two polls for the New York 24th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Balter
Katko
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug. 20-23
8/20-23
Siena College513LV
1.06
39%54%R+15.0 0.2 0.2 R+14.5
Jul. 26-27
7/26-27
Public Policy Polling
D
785V
0.52
47%43%D+4.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 D+2.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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