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Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)
Chance an independent candidate wins (<0.1%)
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.
We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …