North Dakota at large

Solid R

1 in 60

Chance the Democrat wins (1.7%)

59 in 60

Chance the Republican wins (98.3%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in North Dakota

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+12.8

    Adjusted polls

  • R+12.0

    CANTOR

  • R+24.6

    Fundamentals

  • R+20.5

    Experts

  • R+12.8

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+17.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+18.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in North Dakota

We've collected four polls for North Dakota. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Schneider
Armstrong
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research701LV
1.47
34%48%R+14.0 <0.1 1.6 R+12.4
Aug. 26-28
8/26-28
Axis Research
R
506LV
0.43
32%53%R+21.0 0.1 6.2 R+14.7
Jun. 13-15
6/13-15
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.625RV
0.07
35%46%R+11.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 R+10.3
May 13-14
5/13-14
Axis Research
R
509LV
0.00
28%48%R+20.0 0.9 6.2 R+12.7

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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