Ohio 1st

Lean D

3 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (60.6%)

2 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (39.4%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Ohio 1st

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+0.7

    Adjusted polls

  • R+5.2

    CANTOR

  • D+4.6

    Fundamentals

  • R+0.3

    Experts

  • R+2.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+1.8

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+1.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Ohio 1st

We've collected two polls for the Ohio 1st. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Pureval
Chabot
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 11-13
9/11-13
GBA Strategies
D
500LV
0.71
46%44%D+2.0 <0.1 2.2 R+0.2
Apr. 16-17
4/16-17
Public Policy Polling
D
662V
0.29
42%43%R+1.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 R+1.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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