Pennsylvania 1st

We've collected seven polls for the Pennsylvania 1st. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

								Adjustments
dates	pollster	sample		weight	Wallace	Fitzpatrick	margin	likely voter	Time-line	House effects	Adjusted margin
Oct. 26-29 10/26-29	Siena College/New York Times	502	LV	1.61	46%	47%	R+1.3	—	<0.1	0.3	R+1.6
Oct. 14-16 10/14-16	TargetPoint R	400	LV	0.37	49%	45%	D+4.0	—	<0.1	3.9	D+7.9
Oct. 11-14 10/11-14	Siena College/New York Times	570	LV	0.41	50%	43%	D+7.2	—	<0.1	0.3	D+6.9
Oct. 2-4 10/2-4	Public Opinion Strategies R	400	LV	0.27	42%	50%	R+8.0	—	<0.1	4.7	R+3.4
Sep. 27-Oct. 1 9/27-10/1	Monmouth University	353	LV	0.27	46%	50%	R+4.0	—	<0.1	0.2	R+4.2
May 31-Jun. 3 5/31-6/3	Monmouth University	254	LV	0.00	48%	48%	EVEN	—	0.9	0.2	D+0.8
May 12-14 5/12-14	DCCC Targeting Team D	540	LV	0.00	46%	48%	R+2.0	—	1.0	2.9	R+3.9

Weighted averageD+0.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R

D

= partisan poll