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<1 in 100
Chance the Democrat wins (<0.1%)
>99 in 100
Chance the Republican wins (>99.9%)
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#Similar districts and CANTOR
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Districts most similar to the Pennsylvania 13th
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
|PA-13 is 44.5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012.|
|Previous incumbent's margin in last election|
|Pennsylvania has been redistricted since 2016. We estimate that the Republican candidate would have won by 39.7 percentage points in 2016 under current district boundaries. Previous district results are not strongly predictive in races without incumbents.|
|Democrats lead by an average of 8.3 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.|
|As of June 30, John Joyce had raised $97,000 in individual contributions (93% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Brent Ottaway had raised $7,000 (7%).|
|Neither Ottaway nor Joyce has held elected office before.|
|Neither candidate is involved in a scandal.|
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
|Cook Political Report||R+38.0||R+36.6|
|Sabato's Crystal Ball||R+38.0||R+36.8|
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …