Pennsylvania 13th

Solid R

<1 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (<0.1%)

>99 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (>99.9%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Pennsylvania 13th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • Adjusted polls

  • R+31.1

    CANTOR

  • R+38.8

    Fundamentals

  • R+36.3

    Experts

  • R+31.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+38.0

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+37.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

Our latest coverage

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the Pennsylvania 13th
Sim. score Polling avg.
PA-1583.7
IL-1579.5
PA-1274.6
IN-672.6
OH-470.4
PA-970.2
OH-669.5
OH-764.7
MO-364.2
IN-863.3

#The “fundamentals”

The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.

FactorImpactExplanation
District partisanship
37.9
PA-13 is 44.5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012.
Previous incumbent's margin in last election
2.4
Pennsylvania has been redistricted since 2016. We estimate that the Republican candidate would have won by 39.7 percentage points in 2016 under current district boundaries. Previous district results are not strongly predictive in races without incumbents.
Generic ballot
7.9
Democrats lead by an average of 8.3 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.
Fundraising
6.4
As of June 30, John Joyce had raised $97,000 in individual contributions (93% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Brent Ottaway had raised $7,000 (7%).
Candidate experience
0.0
Neither Ottaway nor Joyce has held elected office before.
Scandals
0.0
Neither candidate is involved in a scandal.
Total
R+38.8

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
ExpertRatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Solid R
R+38.0R+36.6
Inside Elections
Solid R
R+38.0R+35.6
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
R+38.0R+36.8
AverageR+38.0R+36.3

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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