Pennsylvania 16th

Solid R

1 in 40

Chance the Democrat wins (2.8%)

39 in 40

Chance the Republican wins (97.2%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Pennsylvania 16th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+8.7

    Adjusted polls

  • R+9.0

    CANTOR

  • R+16.9

    Fundamentals

  • R+8.5

    Experts

  • R+8.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+14.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+12.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Pennsylvania 16th

We've collected one poll for the Pennsylvania 16th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
DiNicola
Kelly
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jun. 5-7
6/5-7
Normington, Petts & Associates
D
400LV
0.50
44%50%R+6.0 0.7 3.7 R+8.7

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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