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Chance the Democrat wins (95.7%)
Chance the Republican wins (4.3%)
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+12.5
Adjusted polls
D+5.9
CANTOR
D+10.1
Fundamentals
D+10.7
Experts
D+9.6
Lite
D+10.8
Classic
D+10.8
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
We've collected two polls for the Pennsylvania 17th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
Adjustments | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dates | pollster | sample | weight | Lamb | Rothfus | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Oct. 5-8 10/5-8 | Monmouth University | 354 | LV | 1.04 | 54% | 42% | D+12.7 | — | <0.1 | 0.2 | D+12.5 |
Jul. 19-22 7/19-22 | Monmouth University | 355 | LV | 0.00 | 54% | 39% | D+14.3 | — | 0.6 | 0.2 | D+14.7 |
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
= partisan poll
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
---|---|---|---|
PA-1 | 78 | D+0.5 | |
OH-16 | 70 | R+5.1 | |
PA-7 | 68 | D+7.8 | |
OH-14 | 67 | — | |
MI-8 | 66 | D+2.6 | |
NJ-3 | 65 | D+0.9 | |
MI-11 | 63 | D+4.6 | |
PA-6 | 62 | — | |
PA-10 | 62 | R+3.0 | |
NH-1 | 61 | D+7.2 |
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
Factor | Impact | Explanation |
---|---|---|
Incumbency | 1.3 | Conor Lamb has been elected to 1 term and Keith J. Rothfus has been elected to 3 terms. Congress has only a 20.1% approval rating, reducing the incumbency advantage. Pennsylvania underwent redistricting; there is 20% overlap between Lamb's old and new district and 55% overlap between Rothfus's old and new district. |
District partisanship | 2.1 | PA-17 is 5.8 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012. |
Incumbent's margin in last election | 2.4 | Lamb won by 0.3 percentage points in a special election. Rothfus won by 23.5 percentage points in 2016 in an open-seat race. However, Pennsylvania has since undergone redistricting. Lamb's district is now considerably more Democratic. Rothfus's district is now considerably more Democratic. |
Generic ballot | 7.0 | Democrats lead by an average of 8.6 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot. |
Fundraising | 2.7 | As of Oct. 17, Lamb had raised $2,089,000 in individual contributions (61% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Rothfus had raised $1,364,000 (39%). |
Incumbent's voting record in Congress | 1.4 | Lamb has voted with Democrats 73% of the time and Rothfus has voted with Republicans 86% of the time in roll-call votes in recent sessions of Congress. Candidates who vote with their party very frequently tend to underperform at the ballot booth, other factors held equal. |
Candidate experience | 0.0 | As incubents, both Lamb and Rothfus have previously held elected office. |
Scandals | 0.0 | Neither candidate is involved in a scandal. |
Total | D+10.1 |
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
Equivalent Margin | |||
---|---|---|---|
Expert | Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
Cook Political Report | D+12.1 | D+12.7 | |
Inside Elections | D+6.7 | D+7.6 | |
Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+12.1 | D+11.7 | |
Average | D+10.3 | D+10.7 |
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
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