Pennsylvania 17th

Solid D

49 in 50

Chance the Democrat wins (98.2%)

1 in 50

Chance the Republican wins (1.8%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Pennsylvania 17th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+13.8

    Adjusted polls

  • D+6.2

    CANTOR

  • D+16.8

    Fundamentals

  • D+8.6

    Experts

  • D+9.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+15.0

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+12.9

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Pennsylvania 17th

We've collected one poll for the Pennsylvania 17th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Lamb
Rothfus
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jul. 19-22
7/19-22
Monmouth University355LV
0.73
54%39%D+14.3 0.6 1.3 D+13.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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