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#Similar districts and CANTOR
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Districts most similar to the Pennsylvania 18th
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …