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<1 in 100
Chance the Democrat wins (0.2%)
>99 in 100
Chance the Republican wins (99.8%)
Chance of winning
Popular vote share
We've collected one poll for the Pennsylvania 9th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
|margin||likely voter||Time-line||House effects||Adjusted margin|
|Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.||271||LV|
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
= partisan poll
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#Similar districts and CANTOR
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Districts most similar to the Pennsylvania 9th
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
|PA-9 is 30.6 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012.|
|Previous incumbent's margin in last election|
|Pennsylvania has been redistricted since 2016. We estimate that the Republican candidate would have won by 28.7 percentage points in 2016 under current district boundaries. Previous district results are not strongly predictive in races without incumbents.|
|Democrats lead by an average of 8.6 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.|
|As of Oct. 17, Dan Meuser had raised $487,000 in individual contributions (68% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Denny Wolff had raised $229,000 (32%).|
|Neither Wolff nor Meuser has held elected office before.|
|Neither candidate is involved in a scandal.|
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
|Cook Political Report||R+23.4||R+22.8|
|Sabato's Crystal Ball||R+23.4||R+23.8|
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …