>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the independent candidate wins (<0.1%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Texas 28th

FiveThirtyEight hasn’t collected any polls in this district. Because this district doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used. We rely on non-polling factors to project the race’s outcome.

#Latest polls

We haven’t been able to find any polls for this district. Know of one? Send us an email.

Our latest coverage

#Similar districts and CANTOR

Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.

Districts most similar to the Texas 28th
Sim. score Polling avg.
TX-1576
TX-3470
TX-3556
TX-1653
TX-2051
AZ-350
FL-2647R+0.2
CA-2145R+11.2
TX-2344R+16.1
CA-1643D+10.8

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …

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