Texas 7th

Toss-up

4 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (46.8%)

5 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (53.2%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Texas 7th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+3.4

    Adjusted polls

  • R+7.2

    CANTOR

  • D+3.2

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.4

    Experts

  • R+4.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+0.6

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+0.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Texas 7th

We've collected two polls for the Texas 7th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Fletcher
Culberson
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 14-18
9/14-18
Siena College500LV
1.11
45%48%R+3.4 <0.1 0.2 R+3.2
May 23-31
5/23-31
DCCC Targeting Team
D
404LV
0.21
45%47%R+2.0 0.9 3.4 R+4.2

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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