Utah 4th

Likely R

1 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (19.2%)

4 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (80.8%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the Utah 4th

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+5.2

    Adjusted polls

  • R+13.4

    CANTOR

  • R+6.5

    Fundamentals

  • R+5.0

    Experts

  • R+5.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+6.1

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+5.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the Utah 4th

We've collected nine polls for the Utah 4th. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
McAdams
Love
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 6-8
9/6-8
Y2 Analytics
R
405LV
0.63
42%51%R+9.0 <0.1 4.1 R+4.9
Aug. 22-Sep. 6
8/22-9/6
Dan Jones & Associates400LV
0.53
46%49%R+3.0 0.1 <0.1 R+2.8
Aug. 11-27
8/11-27
Lighthouse Research600RV
0.44
38%48%R+9.2 0.6 0.3 1.6 R+7.8
Aug. 20-23
8/20-23
Mellman Group
D
400LV
0.40
44%46%R+2.0 0.2 4.0 R+5.7
Jun. 11-18
6/11-18
University of Utah379RV
0.05
39%45%R+6.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 R+5.5
May 15-Jun. 5
5/15-6/5
Dan Jones & Associates405LV
0.00
43%47%R+4.0 0.8 <0.1 R+2.9
Feb. 27-Mar. 4
2/27-3/4
Mellman Group
D
400LV
0.00
40%43%R+3.0 0.5 4.0 R+6.3
Feb. 9-21
2/9-21
Dan Jones & Associates404RV
0.00
43%49%R+6.0 0.6 0.4 <0.1 R+6.0
Jan. 15-22
1/15-22
Dan Jones & Associates400RV
0.00
42%47%R+5.0 0.6 0.1 <0.1 R+5.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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