West Virginia 3rd

Likely R

1 in 15

Chance the Democrat wins (6.6%)

14 in 15

Chance the Republican wins (93.4%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in the West Virginia 3rd

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of a district (if available), polls of similar districts (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+3.2

    Adjusted polls

  • R+14.9

    CANTOR

  • R+27.2

    Fundamentals

  • R+2.7

    Experts

  • R+5.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+14.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+10.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in the West Virginia 3rd

We've collected three polls for the West Virginia 3rd. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Ojeda
Miller
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep. 13-15
9/13-15
Emerson College274RV
0.53
36%31%D+5.0 0.5 <0.1 1.3 D+3.2
Sep. 8-10
9/8-10
Siena College499LV
0.96
40%48%R+8.0 <0.1 0.7 R+7.3
Jun. 14-19
6/14-19
Monmouth University343LV
0.05
48%40%D+7.5 0.7 1.5 D+7.0

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments