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1 in 5
Chance the Democrat wins (20.1%)
4 in 5
Chance the Republican wins (79.9%)
We've collected two polls for the Wisconsin 1st. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
|margin||likely voter||Time-line||House effects||Adjusted margin|
|Siena College||500||LV|| |
|Global Strategy Group|
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
= partisan poll
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#Similar districts and CANTOR
Our district similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two districts have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled districts, given what it says in similar districts.
Districts most similar to the Wisconsin 1st
|Sim. score||Polling avg.|
The Classic and Deluxe versions of our model use several non-polling factors to forecast the vote share margin in each district.
|WI-1 is 11.5 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country overall, based on how it has voted in recent presidential and state legislative elections. It voted for Trump in 2016 and Romney in 2012.|
|Previous incumbent's margin in last election|
|A Republican won by 34.7 percentage points in this district in 2016. Previous district results are not strongly predictive in races without incumbents.|
|Democrats lead by an average of 8.3 percentage points in polls of the generic congressional ballot.|
|As of July 25, Randy Bryce had raised $6,001,000 in individual contributions (91% of all such contributions to the major-party candidates); Bryan Steil had raised $599,000 (9%).|
|Neither Bryce nor Steil has held elected office before.|
|Bryce is involved in a scandal that developed since the last election for this seat.|
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
|Cook Political Report||R+6.7||R+5.3|
|Sabato's Crystal Ball||R+6.7||R+5.5|
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …