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Arizona
Lean D
5 in 8
Chance the Democrat wins (61.4%)
3 in 8
Chance the Republican wins (38.6%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in Arizona
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+1.8
Adjusted polls
R+1.0
CANTOR
D+1.1
Fundamentals
D+4.1
Experts
D+1.8
Lite
D+1.7
Classic
D+2.5
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We've collected 47 polls for the Arizona Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
| Adjustments | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | pollster | sample | weight | Sinema | McSally | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Nov 2-4 11/2-4 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.72 | 47% | 46% | D+0.9 | — | <0.1 |  2.3 | D+3.2 |
Nov 2-3 11/2-3 | OH Predictive Insights / MBQF | 631 | LV | 1.18 | 48% | 49% | R+1.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.6 | D+0.6 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Emerson College | 758 | LV | 2.16 | 49% | 48% | D+0.7 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+1.3 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.21 | 46% | 48% | R+2.1 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | D+0.2 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Research Co. | 450 | RV | 1.04 | 45% | 44% | D+1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 | 0.5 | D+1.3 |
Oct 31-Nov 2 10/31-11/2 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.19 | 44% | 49% | R+5.6 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+3.3 |
Oct 24-Nov 2 10/24-11/2 | Gravis Marketing | 1,165 | LV | 1.47 | 46% | 47% | R+1.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+0.4 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 10/30-11/1 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.17 | 42% | 48% | R+6.7 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+4.4 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 10/30-11/1 | Trafalgar Group | 2,166 | LV | 2.01 | 50% | 47% | D+2.7 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+4.2 |
Oct 29-31 10/29-31 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.15 | 42% | 49% | R+7.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+4.7 |
Oct 27-30 10/27-30 | Vox Populi Polling | 677 | LV | 1.03 | 52% | 48% | D+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.7 | D+4.7 |
Oct 24-30 10/24-30 | Harris Interactive | 1,400 | LV | 0.56 | 43% | 48% | R+4.8 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+2.5 |
Oct 27-29 10/27-29 | Fox News | 643 | LV | 1.48 | 46% | 46% | EVEN | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | D+1.5 |
Oct 24-29 10/24-29 | CNN/SSRS | 702 | LV | 1.43 | 51% | 47% | D+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.8 | D+3.2 |
Oct 26-28 10/26-28 | HighGround | 400 | LV | 0.81 | 45% | 47% | R+1.2 | — | <0.1 | 1.6 | D+0.4 |
Oct 23-27 10/23-27 | Marist College | 506 | LV | 1.08 | 49% | 44% | D+4.5 | — | <0.1 | 0.5 | D+4.0 |
Oct 23-26 10/23-26 | YouGov | 972 | LV | 1.24 | 47% | 44% | D+3.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | D+5.3 |
Oct 17-26 10/17-26 | Ipsos | 799 | LV | 1.03 | 46% | 48% | R+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | R+1.4 |
Oct 22-23 10/22-23 | OH Predictive Insights / MBQF | 600 | LV | 0.34 | 45% | 52% | R+7.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.6 | R+5.4 |
Oct 15-19 10/15-19 | Siena College/New York Times | 606 | LV | 0.79 | 46% | 48% | R+1.8 | — | <0.1 | 0.3 | R+2.1 |
Oct 16-17 10/16-17 | Data Orbital | 600 | LV | 0.66 | 47% | 40% | D+6.8 | — | <0.1 | 0.8 | D+6.0 |
Oct 9-10 10/9-10 | Change Research D | 783 | LV | 0.30 | 44% | 44% | D+0.2 | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | R+1.3 |
Oct 2-5 10/2-5 | YouGov | 898 | LV | 0.13 | 47% | 44% | D+3.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | D+5.3 |
Oct 1-2 10/1-2 | OH Predictive Insights / MBQF | 600 | LV | 0.04 | 41% | 47% | R+6.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.6 | R+4.4 |
Sep 29-Oct 2 9/29-10/2 | Fox News | 716 | LV | 0.10 | 47% | 45% | D+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | D+3.5 |
Sep 29-Oct 1 9/29-10/1 | Vox Populi Polling | 702 | LV | 0.05 | 49% | 52% | R+3.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.7 | R+2.3 |
Sep 27-30 9/27-30 | Suffolk University | 500 | LV | 0.22 | 45% | 42% | D+3.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.3 | D+2.6 |
Sep 10-25 9/10-25 | Latino Decisions | 463 | LV | 0.10 | 47% | 41% | D+6.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.7 | D+5.2 |
Sep 19-21 9/19-21 | Emerson College | 650 | RV | 0.02 | 45% | 39% | D+5.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | D+5.8 |
Sep 16-20 9/16-20 | Marist College | 564 | LV | 0.03 | 47% | 44% | D+2.5 | — | 0.1 | 0.5 | D+1.9 |
Sep 11-15 9/11-15 | CNN/SSRS | 761 | LV | 0.02 | 50% | 43% | D+7.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.8 | D+6.1 |
Sep 5-14 9/5-14 | Ipsos | 1,016 | LV | 0.02 | 47% | 44% | D+2.6 | — | 0.1 | 0.6 | D+3.1 |
Sep 8-13 9/8-13 | TargetSmart D | 800 | LV | 0.07 | 51% | 46% | D+5.0 | — | 0.1 | 2.9 | D+2.0 |
Sep 8-11 9/8-11 | Fox News | 710 | LV | 0.01 | 47% | 44% | D+3.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.5 | D+4.4 |
Sep 5-7 9/5-7 | Gravis Marketing | 882 | LV | 0.01 | 48% | 49% | R+1.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.4 | D+0.3 |
Sep 5-6 9/5-6 | OH Predictive Insights / MBQF | 597 | LV | 0.00 | 46% | 49% | R+3.1 | — | 0.1 | 1.6 | R+1.6 |
Sep 4-6 9/4-6 | Data Orbital | 550 | LV | 0.01 | 46% | 42% | D+4.3 | — | 0.1 | 0.8 | D+3.4 |
Jul 24-25 7/24-25 | OH Predictive Insights / MBQF | 600 | LV | 0.00 | 48% | 44% | D+4.0 | — | 0.6 | 1.6 | D+6.2 |
Jun 27-Jul 2 6/27-7/2 | Gravis Marketing | 925 | LV | 0.00 | 43% | 39% | D+4.0 | — | 0.7 | 1.4 | D+6.1 |
Jun 11-Jul 2 6/11-7/2 | SurveyMonkey | 1,209 | LV | 0.00 | 50% | 46% | D+4.0 | — | 0.8 | 1.0 | D+5.8 |
Jun 21-22 6/21-22 | Emerson College | 650 | RV | 0.00 | 40% | 32% | D+8.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | D+9.4 |
Jun 19-22 6/19-22 | YouGov | 1,001 | RV | 0.00 | 41% | 34% | D+7.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.3 | D+9.9 |
Jun 17-21 6/17-21 | Marist College | 839 | RV | 0.00 | 49% | 38% | D+11.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | D+11.1 |
Apr 2-23 4/2-23 | SurveyMonkey | 1,667 | RV | 0.00 | 51% | 42% | D+9.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | D+10.9 |
Apr 10-11 4/10-11 | OH Predictive Insights / MBQF | 600 | LV | 0.00 | 48% | 42% | D+6.0 | — | 1.1 | 1.6 | D+8.7 |
Mar 15-16 3/15-16 | Public Policy Polling D | 547 | V | 0.00 | 46% | 41% | D+5.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | D+3.8 |
Nov 9 11/9 | OH Predictive Insights / MBQF | 600 | LV | 0.00 | 46% | 45% | D+1.0 | — | 0.4 | 1.6 | D+2.2 |
Weighted averageD+1.8
See more polls
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
R
D
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 72 | D+1.0 | |
| Colorado | 60 | — | |
| New Mexico | 60 | D+17.0 | |
| Texas | 54 | R+5.3 | |
| Florida | 54 | D+3.0 | |
| Oregon | 49 | — | |
| Washington | 43 | D+15.6 | |
| California | 43 | — | |
| Wisconsin | 40 | D+12.2 | |
| Iowa | 40 | — |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | EVEN | D+0.6 | |
| Inside Elections | D+4.4 | D+5.3 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+6.7 | D+6.3 | |
| Average | D+3.7 | D+4.1 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
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