5 in 8

Chance the Democrat wins (61.4%)

3 in 8

Chance the Republican wins (38.6%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Arizona

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+1.8

    Adjusted polls

  • R+1.0

    CANTOR

  • D+1.1

    Fundamentals

  • D+4.1

    Experts

  • D+1.8

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+1.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+2.5

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 47 polls for the Arizona Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Sinema
McSally
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Nov 2-4
11/2-4
Harris Interactive600LV
0.72
47%46%D+0.9 <0.1 2.3 D+3.2
Nov 2-3
11/2-3
OH Predictive Insights / MBQF631LV
1.18
48%49%R+1.0 <0.1 1.6 D+0.6
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Emerson College758LV
2.16
49%48%D+0.7 <0.1 0.6 D+1.3
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Harris Interactive600LV
0.21
46%48%R+2.1 <0.1 2.3 D+0.2
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Research Co.450RV
1.04
45%44%D+1.0 0.2 <0.1 0.5 D+1.3
Oct 31-Nov 2
10/31-11/2
Harris Interactive600LV
0.19
44%49%R+5.6 <0.1 2.3 R+3.3
Oct 24-Nov 2
10/24-11/2
Gravis Marketing1,165LV
1.47
46%47%R+1.0 <0.1 1.4 D+0.4
Oct 30-Nov 1
10/30-11/1
Harris Interactive600LV
0.17
42%48%R+6.7 <0.1 2.3 R+4.4
Oct 30-Nov 1
10/30-11/1
Trafalgar Group2,166LV
2.01
50%47%D+2.7 <0.1 1.4 D+4.2
Oct 29-31
10/29-31
Harris Interactive600LV
0.15
42%49%R+7.0 <0.1 2.3 R+4.7
Oct 27-30
10/27-30
Vox Populi Polling677LV
1.03
52%48%D+4.0 <0.1 0.7 D+4.7
Oct 24-30
10/24-30
Harris Interactive1,400LV
0.56
43%48%R+4.8 <0.1 2.3 R+2.5
Oct 27-29
10/27-29
Fox News643LV
1.48
46%46%EVEN <0.1 1.5 D+1.5
Oct 24-29
10/24-29
CNN/SSRS702LV
1.43
51%47%D+4.0 <0.1 0.8 D+3.2
Oct 26-28
10/26-28
HighGround400LV
0.81
45%47%R+1.2 <0.1 1.6 D+0.4
Oct 23-27
10/23-27
Marist College506LV
1.08
49%44%D+4.5 <0.1 0.5 D+4.0
Oct 23-26
10/23-26
YouGov972LV
1.24
47%44%D+3.0 <0.1 2.3 D+5.3
Oct 17-26
10/17-26
Ipsos799LV
1.03
46%48%R+2.0 <0.1 0.6 R+1.4
Oct 22-23
10/22-23
OH Predictive Insights / MBQF600LV
0.34
45%52%R+7.0 <0.1 1.6 R+5.4
Oct 15-19
10/15-19
Siena College/New York Times606LV
0.79
46%48%R+1.8 <0.1 0.3 R+2.1
Oct 16-17
10/16-17
Data Orbital600LV
0.66
47%40%D+6.8 <0.1 0.8 D+6.0
Oct 9-10
10/9-10
Change Research
D
783LV
0.30
44%44%D+0.2 <0.1 1.5 R+1.3
Oct 2-5
10/2-5
YouGov898LV
0.13
47%44%D+3.0 <0.1 2.3 D+5.3
Oct 1-2
10/1-2
OH Predictive Insights / MBQF600LV
0.04
41%47%R+6.0 <0.1 1.6 R+4.4
Sep 29-Oct 2
9/29-10/2
Fox News716LV
0.10
47%45%D+2.0 <0.1 1.5 D+3.5
Sep 29-Oct 1
9/29-10/1
Vox Populi Polling702LV
0.05
49%52%R+3.0 <0.1 0.7 R+2.3
Sep 27-30
9/27-30
Suffolk University500LV
0.22
45%42%D+3.0 <0.1 0.3 D+2.6
Sep 10-25
9/10-25
Latino Decisions463LV
0.10
47%41%D+6.0 0.1 0.7 D+5.2
Sep 19-21
9/19-21
Emerson College650RV
0.02
45%39%D+5.5 0.2 0.1 0.6 D+5.8
Sep 16-20
9/16-20
Marist College564LV
0.03
47%44%D+2.5 0.1 0.5 D+1.9
Sep 11-15
9/11-15
CNN/SSRS761LV
0.02
50%43%D+7.0 0.1 0.8 D+6.1
Sep 5-14
9/5-14
Ipsos1,016LV
0.02
47%44%D+2.6 0.1 0.6 D+3.1
Sep 8-13
9/8-13
TargetSmart
D
800LV
0.07
51%46%D+5.0 0.1 2.9 D+2.0
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News710LV
0.01
47%44%D+3.0 0.1 1.5 D+4.4
Sep 5-7
9/5-7
Gravis Marketing882LV
0.01
48%49%R+1.0 0.1 1.4 D+0.3
Sep 5-6
9/5-6
OH Predictive Insights / MBQF597LV
0.00
46%49%R+3.1 0.1 1.6 R+1.6
Sep 4-6
9/4-6
Data Orbital550LV
0.01
46%42%D+4.3 0.1 0.8 D+3.4
Jul 24-25
7/24-25
OH Predictive Insights / MBQF600LV
0.00
48%44%D+4.0 0.6 1.6 D+6.2
Jun 27-Jul 2
6/27-7/2
Gravis Marketing925LV
0.00
43%39%D+4.0 0.7 1.4 D+6.1
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey1,209LV
0.00
50%46%D+4.0 0.8 1.0 D+5.8
Jun 21-22
6/21-22
Emerson College650RV
0.00
40%32%D+8.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 D+9.4
Jun 19-22
6/19-22
YouGov1,001RV
0.00
41%34%D+7.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 D+9.9
Jun 17-21
6/17-21
Marist College839RV
0.00
49%38%D+11.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 D+11.1
Apr 2-23
4/2-23
SurveyMonkey1,667RV
0.00
51%42%D+9.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 D+10.9
Apr 10-11
4/10-11
OH Predictive Insights / MBQF600LV
0.00
48%42%D+6.0 1.1 1.6 D+8.7
Mar 15-16
3/15-16
Public Policy Polling
D
547V
0.00
46%41%D+5.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 D+3.8
Nov 9
11/9
OH Predictive Insights / MBQF600LV
0.00
46%45%D+1.0 0.4 1.6 D+2.2
Weighted averageD+1.8
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
Nevada72D+1.0
Colorado60
New Mexico60D+17.0
Texas54R+5.3
Florida54D+3.0
Oregon49
Washington43D+15.6
California43
Wisconsin40D+12.2
Iowa40

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expertrating RatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Toss-up
EVEND+0.6
Inside Elections
Tilt D
D+4.4D+5.3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Leans D
D+6.7D+6.3
AverageD+3.7D+4.1

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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