Arizona

Lean D

7 in 10

Chance the Democrat wins (69.5%)

3 in 10

Chance the Republican wins (30.5%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Arizona

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+3.9

    Adjusted polls

  • R+0.8

    CANTOR

  • D+1.5

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.7

    Experts

  • D+3.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+3.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+2.9

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Arizona

We've collected 16 polls for the Arizona Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Sinema
McSally
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 11-15
9/11-15
SSRS761LV
1.47
50%43%D+7.0 <0.1 0.7 D+6.3
Sep 5-14
9/5-14
Ipsos1,016LV
1.47
47%44%D+3.0 <0.1 1.2 D+4.2
Sep 8-13
9/8-13
TargetSmart
D
800LV
0.72
51%46%D+5.0 <0.1 2.0 D+3.0
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research710LV
1.37
47%44%D+3.0 <0.1 1.6 D+4.6
Sep 5-7
9/5-7
Gravis Marketing882LV
0.82
48%49%R+1.0 <0.1 1.3 D+0.3
Sep 5-6
9/5-6
OH Predictive Insights/MBQF597LV
0.65
46%49%R+3.1 <0.1 1.1 R+2.0
Sep 4-6
9/4-6
Data Orbital550LV
0.83
46%42%D+4.3 <0.1 0.7 D+5.0
Jul 24-25
7/24-25
OH Predictive Insights/MBQF600LV
0.05
48%44%D+4.0 0.5 1.1 D+5.8
Jun 27-Jul 2
6/27-7/2
Gravis Marketing925LV
0.02
43%39%D+4.0 0.6 1.3 D+6.2
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey1,209.2LV
0.05
50%46%D+4.0 0.7 2.0 D+6.9
Jun 21-22
6/21-22
Emerson College650RV
0.09
40%32%D+8.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 D+7.2
Jun 17-21
6/17-21
Marist College839RV
0.11
49%38%D+11.0 0.5 0.7 1.1 D+10.3
Apr 2-23
4/2-23
SurveyMonkey1,667RV
0.00
51%42%D+9.0 0.5 0.9 2.0 D+11.8
Apr 10-11
4/10-11
OH Predictive Insights/MBQF600LV
0.00
48%42%D+6.0 0.9 1.1 D+8.4
Mar 15-16
3/15-16
Public Policy Polling
D
547V
0.00
46%41%D+5.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 D+4.1
Nov 9
11/9
OH Predictive Insights/MBQF600LV
0.00
46%45%D+1.0 0.2 1.1 D+1.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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