Election 2018

California

Solid D

100%

Chance a Democrat wins

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in California

The Classic version of our model normally projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). Because this race doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used.

  • Dianne Feinstein

    D+12.1

    Adjusted polls

  • Dianne Feinstein

    —

    CANTOR

  • Dianne Feinstein

    D+41.4

    Fundamentals

  • Dianne Feinstein

    —

    Experts

  • D+12.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+15.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+15.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • —

  • —

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 19 polls for the California Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Feinstein
de Leon
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Nov 2-4
11/2-4
Change Research1,108LV
2.02
42%32%+10———+10
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Research Co.450RV
1.03
47%28%+19———+19
Nov 1-2
11/1-2
SurveyUSA806LV
2.59
50%36%+14———+14
Oct 25-30
10/25-30
Probolsky Research900LV
1.46
41%35%+6———+6
Oct 19-25
10/19-25
UC Berkeley1,339LV
1.03
45%36%+9———+9
Oct 10-24
10/10-24
YouGov2,178RV
1.21
36%29%+7———+7
Oct 12-21
10/12-21
Public Policy Institute of California989LV
1.14
43%27%+16———+16
Oct 17-19
10/17-19
Emerson College671LV
0.80
41%23%+18———+18
Oct 12-14
10/12-14
SurveyUSA762LV
0.29
40%26%+14———+14
Sep 17-Oct 14
9/17-10/14
USC Dornsife/LA Times794LV
0.24
44%31%+13———+13
Oct 5-6
10/5-6
1st Tuesday Campaigns1,038LV
0.37
43%30%+13———+13
Sep 16-18
9/16-18
Vox Populi Polling500LV
0.09
55%45%+10———+10
Sep 9-18
9/9-18
Public Policy Institute of California964LV
0.04
40%29%+11———+11
Sep 5-14
9/5-14
Ipsos1,021LV
0.13
44%24%+20———+20
Aug 29-Sep 2
8/29-9/2
Probolsky Research900LV
0.00
37%29%+8———+8
Jul 8-17
7/8-17
Public Policy Institute of California1,020LV
0.00
46%24%+22———+22
Jun 26-27
6/26-27
SurveyUSA559LV
0.00
46%24%+22———+22
Jun 6-17
6/6-17
USC Dornsife/LA Times767RV
0.00
32%16%+16———+16
Apr 16-18
4/16-18
Probolsky Research900RV
0.00
38%27%+11———+11
Weighted averageD+12.1
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. Polls are considered partisan if they’re conducted on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, or PAC, super PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

Our latest coverage

#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
New Mexico46D+17.0
Nevada45D+1.0
Washington44D+15.6
Arizona43D+1.8
Illinois41—
Colorado39—
New York38D+24.7
Hawaii35—
Oregon33—
New Jersey28D+10.1

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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