California

Solid D

100%

Chance a Democrat wins

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in California

The Classic version of our model normally projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). Because this race doesn’t include both a Democratic and Republican candidate, CANTOR isn’t used.

  • Dianne Feinstein

    D+14.9

    Adjusted polls

  • Dianne Feinstein

    CANTOR

  • Dianne Feinstein

    D+41.3

    Fundamentals

  • Dianne Feinstein

    Experts

  • D+14.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+22.8

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+22.8

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in California

We've collected seven polls for the California Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Feinstein
de Leon
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 16-18
9/16-18
Vox Populi Communications500LV
0.93
55%45%+10+10
Sep 5-14
9/5-14
Ipsos1,021LV
1.30
44%24%+20+20
Aug 29-Sep 2
8/29-9/2
Probolsky Research900LV
0.76
37%29%+8+8
Jul 8-17
7/8-17
Public Policy Institute of California1,020LV
0.25
46%24%+22+22
Jun 26-27
6/26-27
SurveyUSA559LV
0.09
46%24%+22+22
Jun 6-17
6/6-17
USC Dornsife/LA Times767RV
0.04
32%16%+16+16
Apr 16-18
4/16-18
Probolsky Research900RV
0.00
38%27%+11+11

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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