Connecticut

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (0.1%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Connecticut

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+23.2

    Adjusted polls

  • D+18.3

    CANTOR

  • D+32.6

    Fundamentals

  • D+28.7

    Experts

  • D+23.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+26.4

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+27.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Connecticut

We've collected two polls for the Connecticut Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Murphy
Corey
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug 24-27
8/24-27
Gravis Marketing606LV
0.84
54%37%D+17.0 0.1 1.3 D+18.5
Aug 16-21
8/16-21
Quinnipiac University1,029RV
1.24
59%31%D+28.0 0.6 0.3 1.4 D+26.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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