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Florida
Lean D
7 in 10
Chance the Democrat wins (70.4%)
3 in 10
Chance the Republican wins (29.6%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in Florida
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+3.0
Adjusted polls
D+9.4
CANTOR
D+7.2
Fundamentals
D+4.1
Experts
D+3.0
Lite
D+3.1
Classic
D+3.5
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We've collected 82 polls for the Florida Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
| Adjustments | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | pollster | sample | weight | Nelson | Scott | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Nov 3-4 11/3-4 | St. Pete Polls | 3,088 | LV | 1.36 | 50% | 46% | D+3.7 | — | <0.1 |  1.0 | D+4.7 |
Nov 2-4 11/2-4 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.69 | 45% | 49% | R+3.9 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+1.6 |
Oct 29-Nov 4 10/29-11/4 | Quinnipiac University | 1,142 | LV | 2.26 | 51% | 44% | D+7.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | D+6.1 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Emerson College | 784 | LV | 2.17 | 50% | 45% | D+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+5.6 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.21 | 45% | 47% | R+1.7 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | D+0.6 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Research Co. | 450 | RV | 0.99 | 47% | 46% | D+1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 | 0.5 | D+1.3 |
Nov 1-2 11/1-2 | Change Research D | 1,236 | LV | 1.33 | 50% | 48% | D+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | D+0.5 |
Nov 1-2 11/1-2 | St. Pete Polls | 2,733 | LV | 0.96 | 48% | 49% | R+1.6 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | R+0.6 |
Oct 31-Nov 2 10/31-11/2 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.18 | 46% | 48% | R+2.6 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+0.3 |
Oct 30-Nov 2 10/30-11/2 | Marist College | 595 | LV | 1.86 | 50% | 46% | D+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.5 | D+3.5 |
Oct 29-Nov 2 10/29-11/2 | Gravis Marketing | 753 | LV | 0.98 | 50% | 47% | D+3.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+4.4 |
Oct 30-Nov 1 10/30-11/1 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.16 | 45% | 50% | R+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+2.7 |
Oct 30-31 10/30-31 | St. Pete Polls | 2,470 | LV | 0.69 | 49% | 47% | D+1.9 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | D+3.0 |
Oct 29-31 10/29-31 | Harris Interactive | 600 | LV | 0.15 | 45% | 48% | R+3.2 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+0.9 |
Oct 28-31 10/28-31 | Targoz Market Research | 558 | LV | 1.05 | 45% | 49% | R+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | R+2.4 |
Oct 29-30 10/29-30 | Trafalgar Group | 2,543 | LV | 1.88 | 49% | 47% | D+2.2 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+3.7 |
Oct 27-30 10/27-30 | Vox Populi Polling | 696 | LV | 1.12 | 50% | 50% | EVEN | — | <0.1 | 0.7 | D+0.7 |
Oct 24-30 10/24-30 | Harris Interactive | 1,400 | LV | 0.53 | 43% | 44% | R+0.9 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | D+1.4 |
Oct 27-29 10/27-29 | Cygnal | 495 | LV | 0.98 | 50% | 48% | D+1.8 | — | <0.1 | 3.6 | D+5.4 |
Oct 24-29 10/24-29 | CNN/SSRS | 781 | LV | 1.33 | 49% | 47% | D+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.8 | D+1.2 |
Oct 25-28 10/25-28 | Suffolk University | 500 | LV | 1.02 | 45% | 43% | D+1.8 | — | <0.1 | 0.3 | D+1.5 |
Oct 23-27 10/23-27 | Siena College/New York Times | 737 | LV | 1.44 | 48% | 44% | D+3.5 | — | <0.1 | 0.3 | D+3.3 |
Oct 23-26 10/23-26 | University of North Florida | 1,051 | LV | 1.61 | 47% | 46% | D+1.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.3 | D+1.3 |
Oct 23-26 10/23-26 | YouGov | 991 | LV | 1.36 | 46% | 46% | EVEN | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | D+2.3 |
Oct 17-25 10/17-25 | Ipsos | 1,069 | LV | 1.13 | 49% | 44% | D+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+5.6 |
Oct 22-23 10/22-23 | Gravis Marketing | 773 | LV | 0.42 | 49% | 45% | D+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+5.4 |
Oct 16-23 10/16-23 | Strategic Research Associates | 800 | LV | 0.72 | 46% | 45% | D+1.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.4 | D+3.4 |
Oct 16-22 10/16-22 | Saint Leo University | 698 | LV | 0.50 | 47% | 38% | D+8.2 | — | <0.1 | 3.5 | D+11.7 |
Oct 20-21 10/20-21 | St. Pete Polls | 1,575 | LV | 0.15 | 48% | 49% | R+0.3 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | D+0.7 |
Oct 18-21 10/18-21 | Florida Atlantic University | 704 | LV | 0.61 | 41% | 42% | R+1.7 | — | <0.1 | 3.1 | D+1.4 |
Oct 18-21 10/18-21 | SurveyUSA | 665 | LV | 0.98 | 49% | 41% | D+8.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.1 | D+7.9 |
Oct 17-21 10/17-21 | Quinnipiac University | 1,161 | LV | 0.57 | 52% | 46% | D+6.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | D+5.0 |
Oct 17-20 10/17-20 | Schroth, Eldon & Associates | 600 | LV | 0.62 | 45% | 47% | R+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.7 | R+0.3 |
Oct 16-20 10/16-20 | CNN/SSRS | 759 | LV | 0.50 | 50% | 45% | D+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.8 | D+4.2 |
Oct 14-18 10/14-18 | OnMessage Inc. R | 2,200 | LV | 0.59 | 46% | 51% | R+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 5.7 | D+0.7 |
Oct 15-16 10/15-16 | St. Pete Polls | 1,974 | LV | 0.11 | 47% | 49% | R+1.4 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | R+0.4 |
Oct 1-5 10/1-5 | Florida Southern College | 476 | LV | 0.22 | 44% | 46% | R+1.5 | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | R+0.0 |
Sep 19-Oct 2 9/19-10/2 | Kaiser Family Foundation | 522 | RV | 0.16 | 48% | 45% | D+3.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | D+2.3 |
Sep 29-30 9/29-30 | St. Pete Polls | 2,313 | LV | 0.03 | 47% | 47% | D+0.7 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | D+1.7 |
Sep 28-30 9/28-30 | Public Policy Polling D | 779 | V | 0.17 | 48% | 44% | D+4.0 | 0.1 | <0.1 | 1.9 | D+2.0 |
Sep 17-30 9/17-30 | Strategic Research Associates | 800 | LV | 0.05 | 45% | 44% | D+1.0 | — | 0.1 | 2.4 | D+3.3 |
Sep 24-27 9/24-27 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 815 | LV | 0.26 | 47% | 46% | D+1.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.3 | D+1.2 |
Sep 22-24 9/22-24 | Quinnipiac University | 888 | LV | 0.03 | 53% | 46% | D+7.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.0 | D+5.9 |
Sep 19-24 9/19-24 | Cherry Communications R | 622 | LV | 0.11 | 48% | 46% | D+2.0 | — | 0.1 | 3.5 | D+5.4 |
Sep 16-20 9/16-20 | Marist College | 600 | LV | 0.02 | 48% | 45% | D+3.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.5 | D+2.4 |
Sep 17-19 9/17-19 | University of North Florida | 603 | LV | 0.02 | 45% | 45% | EVEN | — | 0.1 | 0.3 | D+0.2 |
Sep 13-16 9/13-16 | Florida Atlantic University | 850 | LV | 0.02 | 41% | 42% | R+1.0 | — | 0.1 | 3.1 | D+2.0 |
Sep 5-12 9/5-12 | Ipsos | 1,000 | LV | 0.02 | 45% | 46% | R+1.4 | — | 0.1 | 0.6 | R+0.9 |
Sep 10-11 9/10-11 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 | LV | 0.09 | 45% | 44% | D+1.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.8 | D+2.7 |
Sep 7-9 9/7-9 | SurveyUSA | 634 | LV | 0.01 | 44% | 46% | R+2.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | R+2.2 |
Aug 30-Sep 3 8/30-9/3 | Quinnipiac University | 785 | LV | 0.00 | 49% | 49% | EVEN | — | 0.1 | 1.0 | R+1.0 |
Aug 29-30 8/29-30 | Gravis Marketing | 1,225 | RV | 0.00 | 47% | 47% | EVEN | 0.2 | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+1.2 |
Aug 29-30 8/29-30 | Public Policy Polling | 743 | V | 0.01 | 46% | 45% | D+1.0 | 0.1 | <0.1 | 1.2 | R+0.3 |
Aug 29-30 8/29-30 | St. Pete Polls | 1,755 | LV | 0.00 | 47% | 47% | D+0.1 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | D+1.1 |
Aug 16-20 8/16-20 | Florida Atlantic University | 800 | RV | 0.00 | 39% | 45% | R+6.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.1 | R+2.8 |
Aug 10-16 8/10-16 | Saint Leo University | 500 | A | 0.00 | 36% | 40% | R+4.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 3.5 | R+2.1 |
Jul 24-25 7/24-25 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 625 | LV | 0.00 | 44% | 47% | R+3.0 | — | 0.6 | 0.3 | R+2.1 |
Jul 20-21 7/20-21 | Florida Atlantic University | 800 | RV | 0.00 | 40% | 44% | R+4.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.1 | R+0.5 |
Jul 13-14 7/13-14 | Gravis Marketing | 1,840 | LV | 0.00 | 47% | 43% | D+4.0 | — | 0.6 | 1.4 | D+6.0 |
Jun 11-Jul 2 6/11-7/2 | SurveyMonkey | 990 | LV | 0.00 | 45% | 52% | R+6.2 | — | 0.8 | 1.0 | R+4.4 |
Jun 19-22 6/19-22 | YouGov | 839 | LV | 0.00 | 41% | 46% | R+5.0 | — | 0.8 | 2.3 | R+1.9 |
Jun 17-21 6/17-21 | Marist College | 947 | RV | 0.00 | 49% | 45% | D+4.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | D+4.1 |
Jun 18-19 6/18-19 | Public Policy Polling | 1,308 | V | 0.00 | 48% | 46% | D+2.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | D+1.6 |
May 31-Jun 15 5/31-6/15 | Gravis Marketing | 1,251 | LV | 0.00 | 50% | 40% | D+10.0 | — | 0.9 | 1.4 | D+12.3 |
May 25-Jun 4 5/25-6/4 | Cherry Communications R | 605 | LV | 0.00 | 45% | 48% | R+3.0 | — | 1.0 | 3.5 | D+1.4 |
May 25-31 5/25-31 | Saint Leo University | 506 | A | 0.00 | 34% | 40% | R+5.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 3.5 | R+2.1 |
May 29-30 5/29-30 | Morning Consult | 1,199 | V | 0.00 | 39% | 40% | R+1.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | D+0.5 |
May 4-7 5/4-7 | Florida Atlantic University | 728 | LV | 0.00 | 45% | 45% | EVEN | — | 1.1 | 3.1 | D+4.2 |
Apr 10-11 4/10-11 | Public Policy Polling | 661 | V | 0.00 | 50% | 44% | D+6.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | D+5.8 |
Feb 26-Mar 19 2/26-3/19 | Gravis Marketing | 2,212 | LV | 0.00 | 44% | 40% | D+4.0 | — | 0.7 | 1.4 | D+6.1 |
Mar 10-13 3/10-13 | McLaughlin & Associates R | 800 | LV | 0.00 | 46% | 47% | R+1.0 | — | 0.7 | 6.7 | D+6.4 |
Mar 1-7 3/1-7 | Clearview Research | 750 | LV | 0.00 | 41% | 43% | R+2.0 | — | 0.6 | 1.6 | D+0.2 |
Feb 12-Mar 5 2/12-3/5 | SurveyMonkey | 1,806 | RV | 0.00 | 53% | 43% | D+10.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | D+11.3 |
Feb 23-26 2/23-26 | Quinnipiac University | 1,156 | V | 0.00 | 46% | 42% | D+4.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | D+3.5 |
Feb 23-25 2/23-25 | Florida Atlantic University | 800 | RV | 0.00 | 40% | 38% | D+2.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 3.1 | D+5.5 |
Feb 18-24 2/18-24 | Saint Leo University | 500 | A | 0.00 | 35% | 42% | R+6.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 3.5 | R+3.8 |
Feb 1-18 2/1-18 | Gravis Marketing | 1,978 | RV | 0.00 | 44% | 40% | D+4.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | D+5.6 |
Feb 1-4 2/1-4 | Florida Atlantic University | 750 | RV | 0.00 | 34% | 44% | R+10.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.1 | R+6.8 |
Jan 29-Feb 4 1/29-2/4 | University of North Florida | 429 | LV | 0.00 | 48% | 42% | D+6.0 | — | 0.3 | 0.3 | D+6.6 |
Jan 30-Feb 1 1/30-2/1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 625 | RV | 0.00 | 45% | 44% | D+1.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | D+1.4 |
Dec 19-24 12/19-24 | Gravis Marketing | 5,778 | RV | 0.00 | 44% | 39% | D+5.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.4 | D+5.9 |
Nov 19-24 11/19-24 | Saint Leo University | 500 | A | 0.00 | 32% | 42% | R+10.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 3.5 | R+8.6 |
Weighted averageD+3.0
See more polls
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
R
D
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 60 | No race | |
| Texas | 56 | R+5.3 | |
| Georgia | 55 | — | |
| Arizona | 54 | D+1.8 | |
| Ohio | 51 | D+11.9 | |
| Pennsylvania | 51 | D+11.7 | |
| Virginia | 51 | D+14.1 | |
| South Carolina | 49 | — | |
| Louisiana | 46 | No race | |
| Michigan | 45 | D+10.7 |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | EVEN | D+0.6 | |
| Inside Elections | D+4.4 | D+5.3 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+6.7 | D+6.3 | |
| Average | D+3.7 | D+4.1 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
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