Florida

Toss-up

5 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (56.1%)

4 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (43.9%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Florida

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+0.2

    Adjusted polls

  • D+10.9

    CANTOR

  • D+7.3

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.9

    Experts

  • R+0.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+1.1

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+1.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Florida

We've collected 34 polls for the Florida Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Nelson
Scott
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 10-11
9/10-11
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research800LV
1.07
45%44%D+1.0 <0.1 1.1 D+2.1
Sep 7-9
9/7-9
SurveyUSA634LV
1.28
44%46%R+2.0 <0.1 0.3 R+1.7
Aug 30-Sep 3
8/30-9/3
Quinnipiac University785LV
1.07
49%49%EVEN 0.1 1.6 R+1.5
Aug 29-30
8/29-30
Gravis Marketing1,225RV
0.59
47%47%EVEN 0.5 0.2 1.0 D+0.7
Aug 29-30
8/29-30
Public Policy Polling743V
0.75
46%45%D+1.0 0.3 0.2 0.8 D+0.1
Aug 29-30
8/29-30
St. Pete Polls1,755LV
1.15
47%47%D+0.1 0.2 0.4 D+0.7
Aug 16-20
8/16-20
Florida Atlantic University800RV
0.38
39%45%R+6.0 0.5 0.4 3.0 R+3.0
Aug 10-16
8/10-16
Saint Leo University500A
0.17
36%40%R+4.6 2.0 0.5 4.5 R+1.4
Jul 24-25
7/24-25
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.625LV
0.27
44%47%R+3.0 0.6 0.2 R+2.0
Jul 20-21
7/20-21
Florida Atlantic University800RV
0.07
40%44%R+4.0 0.5 0.6 3.0 R+0.8
Jul 13-14
7/13-14
Gravis Marketing1,840LV
0.07
47%43%D+4.0 0.6 1.0 D+5.9
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey990.4LV
0.05
45%52%R+6.2 0.8 2.0 R+3.2
Jun 19-22
6/19-22
YouGov839LV
0.11
41%46%R+5.0 0.8 2.5 R+1.5
Jun 17-21
6/17-21
Marist College947RV
0.13
49%45%D+4.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 D+3.3
Jun 18-19
6/18-19
Public Policy Polling1,308V
0.02
48%46%D+2.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 D+2.0
May 31-Jun 15
5/31-6/15
Gravis Marketing1,251LV
0.01
50%40%D+10.0 0.8 1.0 D+12.2
May 25-Jun 4
5/25-6/4
Cherry Communications605LV
0.04
45%48%R+3.0 0.9 1.5 R+0.3
May 25-31
5/25-31
Saint Leo University506A
0.00
34%40%R+5.1 2.0 0.9 4.5 R+1.4
May 29-30
5/29-30
Morning Consult1,199V
0.06
39%40%R+1.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 D+1.0
May 4-7
5/4-7
Florida Atlantic University728LV
0.00
45%45%EVEN 1.0 3.0 D+4.3
Apr 10-11
4/10-11
Public Policy Polling661V
0.00
50%44%D+6.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 D+6.3
Feb 26-Mar 19
2/26-3/19
Gravis Marketing2,212LV
0.00
44%40%D+4.0 0.7 1.0 D+6.0
Mar 10-13
3/10-13
McLaughlin & Associates800LV
0.00
46%47%R+1.0 0.7 3.3 D+3.3
Mar 1-7
3/1-7
Clearview Research750LV
0.00
41%43%R+2.0 0.7 1.3 D+0.2
Feb 12-Mar 5
2/12-3/5
SurveyMonkey1,806RV
0.00
53%43%D+10.0 0.5 0.6 2.0 D+12.3
Feb 23-26
2/23-26
Quinnipiac University1,156V
0.00
46%42%D+4.0 0.3 0.6 1.6 D+2.9
Feb 23-25
2/23-25
Florida Atlantic University800RV
0.00
40%38%D+2.0 0.5 0.6 3.0 D+5.3
Feb 18-24
2/18-24
Saint Leo University500A
0.00
35%42%R+6.4 2.0 0.6 4.5 R+3.1
Feb 1-18
2/1-18
Gravis Marketing1,978RV
0.00
44%40%D+4.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 D+5.2
Feb 1-4
2/1-4
Florida Atlantic University750RV
0.00
34%44%R+10.0 0.5 0.4 3.0 R+7.0
Jan 29-Feb 4
1/29-2/4
University of North Florida429LV
0.00
48%42%D+6.0 0.4 1.3 D+5.2
Jan 30-Feb 1
1/30-2/1
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.625RV
0.00
45%44%D+1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 D+1.3
Dec 19-24
12/19-24
Gravis Marketing5,778RV
0.00
44%39%D+5.0 0.5 <0.1 1.0 D+5.5
Nov 19-24
11/19-24
Saint Leo University500A
0.00
32%42%R+10.2 2.0 0.1 4.5 R+7.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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