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Hawaii
Solid D
>99 in 100
Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)
<1 in 100
Chance the Republican wins (<0.1%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in Hawaii
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
—
Adjusted polls
D+51.0
CANTOR
D+53.8
Fundamentals
D+53.9
Experts
D+51.0
Lite
D+53.5
Classic
D+53.6
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We haven’t been able to find any polls for this race. Know of one? Send us an email.
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| California | 35 | — | |
| Washington | 14 | D+15.6 | |
| Oregon | 4 | — | |
| Maryland | 3 | D+33.6 | |
| Illinois | 2 | — | |
| New York | 2 | D+24.7 | |
| Massachusetts | 1 | D+23.2 | |
| Colorado | -1 | — | |
| Arizona | -2 | D+1.8 | |
| Nevada | -2 | D+1.0 |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | D+53.5 | D+54.1 | |
| Inside Elections | D+53.5 | D+54.4 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+53.5 | D+53.1 | |
| Average | D+53.5 | D+53.9 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
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