Election 2018

Indiana

Lean D

5 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (71.8%)

2 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (28.2%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Indiana

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+3.0

    Adjusted polls

  • D+2.8

    CANTOR

  • D+9.5

    Fundamentals

  • R+1.9

    Experts

  • D+3.0

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+3.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+1.8

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 24 polls for the Indiana Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Donnelly
Braun
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Nov 2-4
11/2-4
Harris Interactive600LV
0.72
43%41%D+2.8— <0.1 2.3 D+5.1
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Harris Interactive600LV
0.21
43%42%D+0.2— <0.1 2.3 D+2.5
Oct 31-Nov 2
10/31-11/2
Harris Interactive600LV
0.19
44%42%D+2.4— <0.1 2.3 D+4.7
Oct 30-Nov 1
10/30-11/1
Harris Interactive600LV
0.17
43%43%R+0.4— <0.1 2.3 D+1.9
Oct 29-31
10/29-31
Harris Interactive600LV
0.15
40%43%R+3.6— <0.1 2.3 R+1.3
Oct 27-30
10/27-30
Fox News722LV
1.75
45%38%D+7.0— <0.1 1.5 D+8.5
Oct 24-30
10/24-30
Harris Interactive1,400LV
0.55
42%42%R+0.5— <0.1 2.3 D+1.8
Oct 24-28
10/24-28
Marist College496LV
1.14
47%44%D+2.5— <0.1 0.5 D+2.0
Oct 26-27
10/26-27
Cygnal505LV
0.98
46%49%R+2.9— <0.1 3.6 D+0.7
Oct 23-26
10/23-26
YouGov975LV
1.41
43%46%R+3.0— <0.1 2.3 R+0.7
Oct 15-20
10/15-20
Mason Strategies600LV
0.63
43%47%R+4.0— <0.1 2.8 R+1.2
Oct 14-17
10/14-17
American Viewpoint
R
800LV
0.36
40%44%R+4.0— <0.1 5.3 D+1.3
Oct 12-16
10/12-16
Gravis Marketing377LV
0.33
44%40%D+4.0— <0.1 1.4 D+5.4
Oct 12-16
10/12-16
SurveyUSA816LV
0.88
41%40%D+1.0— <0.1 0.1 D+0.9
Oct 13-15
10/13-15
Vox Populi Polling783LV
0.51
55%45%D+10.0— <0.1 0.7 D+10.7
Oct 7-10
10/7-10
American Viewpoint
R
800LV
0.18
40%44%R+4.0— <0.1 5.3 D+1.3
Sep 30-Oct 3
9/30-10/3
American Viewpoint
R
800LV
0.09
39%43%R+4.0— <0.1 5.3 D+1.3
Sep 29-Oct 2
9/29-10/2
Fox News695LV
0.09
43%41%D+2.0— <0.1 1.5 D+3.5
Sep 12-19
9/12-19
Ipsos1,181LV
0.19
46%43%D+2.2— 0.1 0.6 D+2.7
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News677LV
0.01
43%45%R+2.0— 0.1 1.5 R+0.6
Aug 26-29
8/26-29
Marist College576LV
0.00
47%42%D+4.5— <0.1 0.5 D+4.0
Jul 31-Aug 7
7/31-8/7
Trafalgar Group1,420LV
0.02
51%39%D+12.1— 0.5 1.4 D+14.1
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey850LV
0.00
46%51%R+4.8— 0.8 1.0 R+3.1
May 10-15
5/10-15
Gravis Marketing400LV
0.00
46%47%R+1.0— 1.0 1.4 D+1.4
Weighted averageD+3.0
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. Polls are considered partisan if they’re conducted on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, or PAC, super PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
Missouri82D+0.5
Ohio78D+11.9
Kansas73—
Michigan68D+10.7
Iowa66—
Nebraska66R+15.5
Wisconsin65D+12.2
Tennessee62R+4.7
Kentucky62No race
Pennsylvania61D+11.7

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expertrating RatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Toss-up
EVEND+0.6
Inside Elections
Toss-up
EVEND+0.9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Leans R
R+6.7R+7.1
AverageR+2.2R+1.9

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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