Indiana

Likely D

3 in 4

Chance the Democrat wins (76.4%)

2 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (23.6%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Indiana

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+2.7

    Adjusted polls

  • D+5.0

    CANTOR

  • D+11.0

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.8

    Experts

  • D+2.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+5.3

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+4.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Indiana

We've collected five polls for the Indiana Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Donnelly
Braun
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research677LV
1.43
43%45%R+2.0 <0.1 1.6 R+0.4
Aug 26-29
8/26-29
Marist College576LV
0.85
47%42%D+4.5 0.1 1.1 D+3.6
Jul 31-Aug 7
7/31-8/7
Trafalgar Group1,420LV
0.39
51%39%D+12.1 0.5 1.2 D+11.5
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey850.2LV
0.05
46%51%R+4.8 0.6 2.0 R+2.0
May 10-15
5/10-15
Gravis Marketing400LV
0.02
46%47%R+1.0 0.9 1.3 D+1.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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