Massachusetts

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (<0.1%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Massachusetts

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+30.2

    Adjusted polls

  • D+28.1

    CANTOR

  • D+36.6

    Fundamentals

  • D+35.2

    Experts

  • D+29.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+33.4

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+34.0

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Massachusetts

We've collected five polls for the Massachusetts Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Warren
Diehl
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 13-17
9/13-17
Suffolk University500LV
1.00
54%24%D+29.4 <0.1 0.7 D+30.1
Jun 8-12
6/8-12
Suffolk University500LV
0.00
55%33%D+22.4 0.8 0.7 D+24.2
May 22-26
5/22-26
MassINC Polling Group501RV
0.03
54%19%D+35.0 0.5 1.0 1.9 D+33.8
Mar 16-18
3/16-18
MassINC Polling Group504RV
0.00
55%20%D+35.0 0.5 0.8 1.9 D+33.6
Nov 9-12
11/9-12
MassINC Polling Group503RV
0.00
58%32%D+26.0 0.5 0.2 1.9 D+23.2

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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