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Michigan
Solid D
19 in 20
Chance the Democrat wins (95.8%)
1 in 20
Chance the Republican wins (4.2%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in Michigan
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+10.7
Adjusted polls
D+13.5
CANTOR
D+16.3
Fundamentals
D+20.5
Experts
D+10.7
Lite
D+11.2
Classic
D+14.3
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We've collected 29 polls for the Michigan Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
| Adjustments | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | pollster | sample | weight | Stabenow | James | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Nov 5 11/5 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 827 | LV | 0.61 | 49% | 46% | D+3.0 | — | <0.1 |  3.9 | D+6.9 |
Nov 2-5 11/2-5 | Trafalgar Group | 1,817 | LV | 2.25 | 53% | 44% | D+9.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+10.4 |
Nov 4 11/4 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 701 | LV | 0.46 | 53% | 46% | D+7.0 | — | <0.1 | 3.9 | D+10.9 |
Nov 2-4 11/2-4 | Change Research | 880 | LV | 1.66 | 49% | 47% | D+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+1.4 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Research Co. | 450 | RV | 0.94 | 52% | 36% | D+16.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 | 0.5 | D+16.3 |
Oct 29-30 10/29-30 | Gravis Marketing | 764 | LV | 1.18 | 54% | 41% | D+13.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+14.4 |
Oct 25-27 10/25-27 | Glengariff Group, Inc. | 600 | LV | 0.85 | 53% | 36% | D+16.7 | — | <0.1 | 2.7 | D+14.0 |
Oct 24-26 10/24-26 | Emerson College | 822 | LV | 1.28 | 52% | 43% | D+9.4 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+10.0 |
Oct 25 10/25 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 400 | LV | 0.09 | 52% | 46% | D+6.0 | — | <0.1 | 3.9 | D+9.9 |
Oct 22-24 10/22-24 | Target Insyght | 800 | LV | 0.70 | 53% | 43% | D+10.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.8 | D+11.8 |
Oct 18-23 10/18-23 | EPIC-MRA | 600 | LV | 0.75 | 49% | 42% | D+7.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.1 | D+6.9 |
Oct 20-22 10/20-22 | Tarrance Group R | 605 | LV | 0.61 | 48% | 41% | D+7.0 | — | <0.1 | 4.6 | D+11.6 |
Oct 13-22 10/13-22 | Michigan State University | 169 | A | 0.12 | 49% | 42% | D+7.0 | 1.4 | <0.1 | 1.7 | D+7.3 |
Oct 14-18 10/14-18 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 600 | LV | 0.46 | 53% | 37% | D+16.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.4 | D+15.6 |
Sep 30-Oct 7 9/30-10/7 | Mitchell Research & Communications R | 654 | LV | 0.01 | 51% | 42% | D+8.8 | — | <0.1 | 5.7 | D+14.5 |
Sep 30-Oct 2 9/30-10/2 | Glengariff Group, Inc. | 600 | LV | 0.06 | 53% | 35% | D+18.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.7 | D+15.3 |
Sep 21-25 9/21-25 | EPIC-MRA | 600 | LV | 0.04 | 56% | 33% | D+23.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | D+22.8 |
Sep 14-21 9/14-21 | Ipsos | 1,150 | LV | 0.19 | 55% | 35% | D+19.3 | — | 0.1 | 0.6 | D+19.8 |
Sep 10-14 9/10-14 | Target Insyght | 800 | LV | 0.01 | 55% | 40% | D+15.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.8 | D+16.7 |
Sep 12-13 9/12-13 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 1,009 | LV | 0.00 | 54% | 41% | D+13.0 | — | 0.1 | 3.9 | D+16.8 |
Sep 8-9 9/8-9 | Strategic National | 1,000 | LV | 0.08 | 53% | 35% | D+18.0 | — | 0.2 | 1.0 | D+16.9 |
Sep 5-7 9/5-7 | Glengariff Group, Inc. | 600 | LV | 0.01 | 56% | 33% | D+22.9 | — | 0.1 | 2.7 | D+20.1 |
Aug 14-16 8/14-16 | Gravis Marketing | 647 | LV | 0.00 | 51% | 35% | D+16.0 | — | 0.4 | 1.4 | D+17.8 |
Aug 13-14 8/13-14 | Strategic National | 700 | LV | 0.00 | 50% | 35% | D+15.0 | — | 0.4 | 1.0 | D+14.4 |
Aug 11-14 8/11-14 | Tarrance Group R | 602 | LV | 0.00 | 49% | 38% | D+11.0 | — | 0.4 | 4.6 | D+16.1 |
Jul 19-21 7/19-21 | Emerson College | 600 | LV | 0.00 | 47% | 29% | D+18.7 | — | 0.6 | 0.6 | D+19.9 |
Jul 15-19 7/15-19 | Marist College | 886 | RV | 0.01 | 55% | 37% | D+18.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 | D+17.9 |
Jun 11-Jul 2 6/11-7/2 | SurveyMonkey | 901 | LV | 0.00 | 53% | 43% | D+10.6 | — | 0.8 | 1.0 | D+12.4 |
Jan 16-19 1/16-19 | Glengariff Group, Inc. | 600 | LV | 0.00 | 51% | 30% | D+21.0 | — | 0.1 | 2.7 | D+18.4 |
Weighted averageD+10.7
See more polls
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
R
D
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | 81 | D+11.9 | |
| Wisconsin | 80 | D+12.2 | |
| Pennsylvania | 76 | D+11.7 | |
| Minnesota (special) | 73 | D+8.5 | |
| Minnesota | 73 | D+20.4 | |
| Iowa | 70 | — | |
| Indiana | 68 | D+3.0 | |
| Illinois | 61 | — | |
| Missouri | 60 | D+0.5 | |
| North Carolina | 56 | No race |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | D+12.1 | D+12.7 | |
| Inside Elections | D+24.1 | D+25.0 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+24.1 | D+23.8 | |
| Average | D+20.1 | D+20.5 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
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