Michigan

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (99.1%)

<1 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (0.9%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Michigan

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+17.2

    Adjusted polls

  • D+14.7

    CANTOR

  • D+18.3

    Fundamentals

  • D+17.2

    Experts

  • D+17.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+17.3

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+17.3

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Michigan

We've collected 11 polls for the Michigan Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Stabenow
James
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 10-14
9/10-14
Target Insyght800RV
0.88
55%40%D+15.0 0.6 <0.1 0.9 D+15.2
Sep 12-13
9/12-13
Mitchell Research & Communications1,009LV
0.72
54%41%D+13.0 <0.1 1.8 D+14.8
Sep 8-9
9/8-9
Strategic National1,000LV
0.92
53%35%D+18.0 <0.1 0.2 D+18.2
Sep 5-7
9/5-7
Glengariff Group Inc.600LV
0.83
56%33%D+22.9 <0.1 2.2 D+20.7
Aug 14-16
8/14-16
Gravis Marketing647LV
0.37
51%35%D+16.0 0.4 1.3 D+17.8
Aug 13-14
8/13-14
Strategic National700LV
0.14
50%35%D+15.0 0.4 0.2 D+15.7
Aug 11-14
8/11-14
Tarrance Group
R
602LV
0.34
49%38%D+11.0 0.4 4.8 D+16.3
Jul 19-21
7/19-21
Emerson College600LV
0.21
47%29%D+18.0 0.5 1.2 D+17.5
Jul 15-19
7/15-19
Marist College886RV
0.27
55%37%D+18.0 0.6 0.5 1.1 D+17.0
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey900.6LV
0.05
53%43%D+10.6 0.7 2.0 D+13.5
Jan 16-19
1/16-19
Glengariff Group Inc.600LV
0.00
51%30%D+21.0 0.1 2.2 D+18.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments