Minnesota special

We've collected 12 polls for Minnesota's special Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

								Adjustments
dates	pollster	sample		weight	Smith	Housley	margin	likely voter	Time-line	House effects	Adjusted margin
Nov 2-4 11/2-4	Change Research	953	LV	1.44	51%	42%	D+9.0	—	<0.1	0.6	D+8.4
Nov 1-3 11/1-3	Research Co.	450	RV	1.02	49%	39%	D+10.0	0.2	<0.1	0.5	D+10.3
Oct 29-31 10/29-31	SurveyUSA	600	LV	1.70	48%	40%	D+8.0	—	<0.1	0.1	D+7.9
Oct 15-17 10/15-17	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.	800	LV	0.77	47%	41%	D+6.0	—	<0.1	0.3	D+6.3
Oct 12-13 10/12-13	Change Research	1,413	LV	0.23	46%	43%	D+3.0	—	<0.1	0.6	D+2.4
Sep 30-Oct 4 9/30-10/4	Marist College	637	LV	0.36	54%	38%	D+16.0	—	<0.1	0.5	D+15.5
Sep 10-12 9/10-12	Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.	800	LV	0.02	44%	37%	D+7.0	—	0.1	0.3	D+7.2
Sep 6-8 9/6-8	SurveyUSA	574	LV	0.01	48%	39%	D+9.0	—	0.1	0.1	D+8.8
Aug 17-20 8/17-20	Suffolk University	500	LV	0.03	44%	37%	D+7.2	—	0.3	0.3	D+7.1
Aug 8-11 8/8-11	Emerson College	500	LV	0.02	32%	28%	D+4.0	—	0.5	0.6	D+5.1
Jul 15-19 7/15-19	Marist College	876	RV	0.00	49%	35%	D+14.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	D+13.9
Jun 24-25 6/24-25	BK Strategies R	1,574	LV	0.00	48%	39%	D+9.0	—	0.8	1.9	D+11.6

Weighted averageD+8.5

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Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R

D

= partisan poll