Minnesota special

Likely D

9 in 10

Chance the Democrat wins (90.1%)

1 in 10

Chance the Republican wins (9.9%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Minnesota's special election

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+8.2

    Adjusted polls

  • D+7.5

    CANTOR

  • D+15.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+12.0

    Experts

  • D+8.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+10.0

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+10.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Minnesota's special election

We've collected six polls for Minnesota's special Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Smith
Housley
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 10-12
9/10-12
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.800LV
1.46
44%37%D+7.0 <0.1 0.3 D+7.3
Sep 6-8
9/6-8
SurveyUSA574LV
1.13
48%39%D+9.0 <0.1 0.5 D+9.4
Aug 17-20
8/17-20
Suffolk University500LV
0.47
44%37%D+7.0 0.3 0.6 D+8.0
Aug 8-11
8/8-11
Emerson College500LV
0.37
32%28%D+4.0 0.4 1.1 D+3.4
Jul 15-19
7/15-19
Marist College876RV
0.28
49%35%D+14.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 D+13.2
Jun 24-25
6/24-25
BK Strategies
R
1,574LV
0.09
48%39%D+9.0 0.6 2.5 D+12.3

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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