Minnesota

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (0.1%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Minnesota

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+23.3

    Adjusted polls

  • D+15.1

    CANTOR

  • D+27.0

    Fundamentals

  • D+26.7

    Experts

  • D+23.3

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+24.0

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+24.9

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Minnesota

We've collected five polls for Minnesota's regular Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Klobuchar
Newberger
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 10-12
9/10-12
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.800LV
1.47
60%30%D+30.0 <0.1 0.3 D+30.3
Sep 6-8
9/6-8
SurveyUSA574LV
1.14
53%38%D+15.0 <0.1 0.5 D+15.5
Aug 17-20
8/17-20
Suffolk University500LV
0.47
54%34%D+20.0 0.3 0.7 D+21.1
Aug 8-11
8/8-11
Emerson College500LV
0.37
50%26%D+24.0 0.4 1.2 D+23.4
Jun 24-25
6/24-25
BK Strategies
R
1,574LV
0.09
57%37%D+20.0 0.6 2.5 D+23.3

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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