Mississippi special

Likely R

1 in 7

Chance a Democrat wins (15.1%)

6 in 7

Chance a Republican wins (84.9%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Mississippi's special election

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+20.1

    Adjusted polls

  • R+2.3

    CANTOR

  • R+13.1

    Fundamentals

  • R+13.8

    Experts

  • R+16.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+16.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+15.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Mississippi's special election

We've collected six polls for Mississippi's special Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Espy
Hyde-Smith
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug 22-30
8/22-30
Neighborhood Research Corporation
R
304LV
0.45
28%27%D+0.8 0.1 2.1 D+3.1
Aug 1-7
8/1-7
Mellman Group
D
600LV
0.43
27%29%R+2.0 0.4 4.0 R+4.4
Jul 30-31
7/30-31
Triumph Campaigns2,100LV
0.69
27%41%R+14.3 0.5 3.6 R+10.9
May 1-3
5/1-3
GS Strategy Group500LV
0.04
22%30%R+8.0 0.8 1.9 R+4.6
Apr 10-11
4/10-11
Triumph Campaigns1,000LV
0.00
33%33%D+0.1 0.8 3.6 D+4.0
Mar 27
3/27
Chism Strategies
D
603LV
0.01
34%27%D+7.0 0.7 6.7 D+2.9

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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