Mississippi

Solid R

1 in 60

Chance the Democrat wins (1.5%)

59 in 60

Chance the Republican wins (98.5%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Mississippi

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+16.6

    Adjusted polls

  • R+7.8

    CANTOR

  • R+19.2

    Fundamentals

  • R+20.5

    Experts

  • R+13.6

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+17.3

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+18.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Mississippi

We've collected two polls for Mississippi's regular Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Baria
Wicker
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jul 30-31
7/30-31
Triumph Campaigns2,100LV
1.31
32%53%R+20.8 0.4 3.6 R+16.6
Apr 10-11
4/10-11
Triumph Campaigns1,000LV
0.01
31%48%R+16.8 0.8 3.6 R+12.1

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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