Missouri

Lean D

5 in 8

Chance the Democrat wins (62.7%)

3 in 8

Chance the Republican wins (37.3%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Missouri

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+0.9

    Adjusted polls

  • D+4.7

    CANTOR

  • D+7.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.8

    Experts

  • D+0.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+2.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+2.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Missouri

We've collected 19 polls for the Missouri Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
McCaskill
Hawley
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 10-14
9/10-14
YouGov917LV
1.43
45%45%EVEN <0.1 2.8 D+2.8
Sep 11-13
9/11-13
Trafalgar Group1,724LV
1.36
44%47%R+3.0 <0.1 1.2 R+4.2
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research675LV
1.34
45%43%D+1.5 <0.1 1.6 D+3.1
Aug 25-28
8/25-28
Marist College568LV
0.76
46%44%D+2.0 0.1 1.1 D+1.1
Aug 12-14
8/12-14
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
R
501LV
0.28
41%48%R+7.0 0.4 6.7 D+0.1
Aug 8-9
8/8-9
Remington Research Group1,785LV
0.38
47%47%EVEN 0.4 2.6 D+3.2
Jul 7-8
7/7-8
Remington Research Group1,034LV
0.03
46%48%R+2.0 0.5 2.6 D+1.3
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey953.4LV
0.05
49%49%EVEN 0.6 2.0 D+2.8
Jun 11-13
6/11-13
Global Strategy Group804LV
0.06
47%41%D+6.0 0.7 0.5 D+6.4
May 16
5/16
Gravis Marketing822LV
0.03
43%50%R+7.0 0.8 1.3 R+4.6
May 9-10
5/9-10
TJP Strategies898LV
0.02
48%44%D+4.0 0.8 1.9 D+3.2
Apr 26-29
4/26-29
Emerson College600LV
0.02
45%45%EVEN 0.9 1.2 R+0.1
Apr 18-19
4/18-19
TJP Strategies1,542LV
0.01
48%44%D+4.0 0.8 1.9 D+3.2
Apr 16-18
4/16-18
OnMessage Inc.
R
600LV
0.01
46%47%R+1.0 0.8 3.1 D+3.2
Apr 4-6
4/4-6
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.625RV
0.01
45%44%D+1.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 D+1.7
Mar 5-7
3/5-7
Gravis Marketing931RV
0.00
42%40%D+2.0 0.6 0.5 1.3 D+3.4
Feb 12-Mar 5
2/12-3/5
SurveyMonkey1,938RV
0.00
44%52%R+8.0 0.6 0.5 2.0 R+6.0
Jan 8-9
1/8-9
Public Policy Polling
D
965V
0.00
45%44%D+1.0 0.3 <0.1 1.5 R+0.8
Jan 3-4
1/3-4
Remington Research Group1,122LV
0.00
45%49%R+4.0 <0.1 2.6 R+1.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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