4 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (56.9%)

3 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (43.1%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Missouri

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+0.5

    Adjusted polls

  • D+2.4

    CANTOR

  • D+8.1

    Fundamentals

  • R+3.3

    Experts

  • D+0.5

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+1.1

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+0.4

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 43 polls for the Missouri Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
McCaskill
Hawley
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Nov 2-4
11/2-4
Harris Interactive600LV
0.71
44%47%R+2.3 <0.1 2.3 D+0.0
Oct 29-Nov 4
10/29-11/4
Trafalgar Group1,791LV
1.88
44%48%R+3.9 <0.1 1.4 R+2.4
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Emerson College732LV
2.12
46%49%R+3.4 <0.1 0.6 R+2.8
Nov 1-3
11/1-3
Harris Interactive600LV
0.21
46%46%R+0.1 <0.1 2.3 D+2.2
Nov 1-2
11/1-2
Remington Research Group1,424LV
1.00
47%47%EVEN <0.1 4.3 D+4.3
Oct 31-Nov 2
10/31-11/2
Harris Interactive600LV
0.19
45%46%R+0.9 <0.1 2.3 D+1.4
Oct 30-Nov 1
10/30-11/1
Harris Interactive600LV
0.17
46%43%D+2.5 <0.1 2.3 D+4.8
Oct 30-Nov 1
10/30-11/1
Marist College600LV
1.83
49%46%D+3.0 <0.1 0.5 D+2.5
Oct 29-31
10/29-31
Harris Interactive600LV
0.15
45%43%D+1.8 <0.1 2.3 D+4.1
Oct 27-30
10/27-30
Fox News741LV
1.76
44%44%EVEN <0.1 1.5 D+1.5
Oct 24-30
10/24-30
Harris Interactive1,400LV
0.55
46%44%D+1.9 <0.1 2.3 D+4.2
Oct 26-27
10/26-27
Cygnal501LV
0.96
46%49%R+3.0 <0.1 3.6 D+0.6
Oct 24-25
10/24-25
Remington Research Group1,376LV
0.40
45%49%R+4.0 <0.1 4.3 D+0.4
Oct 17-18
10/17-18
Remington Research Group1,215LV
0.17
46%47%R+1.0 <0.1 4.3 D+3.3
Oct 16-18
10/16-18
OnMessage Inc.
R
800LV
0.48
42%49%R+7.0 <0.1 5.7 R+1.3
Oct 11-13
10/11-13
The Polling Company Inc.
R
600LV
0.28
47%50%R+3.0 <0.1 5.3 D+2.2
Sep 27-Oct 7
9/27-10/7
Ipsos1,111LV
0.43
44%45%R+1.2 <0.1 0.6 R+0.6
Oct 5-6
10/5-6
1st Tuesday Campaigns1,052LV
0.37
42%44%R+2.0 <0.1 1.5 R+0.5
Sep 29-Oct 2
9/29-10/2
Fox News683LV
0.09
45%45%EVEN <0.1 1.5 D+1.5
Sep 29-Oct 2
9/29-10/2
McLaughlin & Associates
R
600LV
0.15
44%52%R+8.0 <0.1 6.7 R+1.3
Sep 29-Oct 1
9/29-10/1
Vox Populi Polling869LV
0.25
49%51%R+2.0 <0.1 0.7 R+1.3
Sep 25-29
9/25-29
CNN/SSRS756LV
0.28
47%44%D+3.0 0.1 0.8 D+2.1
Sep 26-27
9/26-27
Remington Research Group1,555LV
0.03
46%48%R+2.0 0.1 4.3 D+2.3
Sep 10-14
9/10-14
YouGov917LV
0.13
45%45%EVEN 0.1 2.3 D+2.2
Sep 11-13
9/11-13
Trafalgar Group1,724LV
0.01
44%47%R+3.0 0.1 1.4 R+1.7
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News675LV
0.01
45%43%D+1.5 0.1 1.5 D+2.9
Aug 25-28
8/25-28
Marist College568LV
0.00
46%44%D+2.0 <0.1 0.5 D+1.5
Aug 12-14
8/12-14
WPA Intelligence
R
501LV
0.01
41%48%R+7.0 0.4 6.5 R+0.1
Aug 8-9
8/8-9
Remington Research Group1,785LV
0.00
47%47%EVEN 0.5 4.3 D+4.8
Jul 10-12
7/10-12
WPA Intelligence
R
602LV
0.00
42%43%R+1.0 0.6 6.5 D+6.1
Jul 7-8
7/7-8
Remington Research Group1,034LV
0.00
46%48%R+2.0 0.6 4.3 D+3.0
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey953LV
0.00
49%49%EVEN 0.7 1.0 D+1.7
Jun 11-13
6/11-13
Global Strategy Group
D
804LV
0.00
47%41%D+6.0 0.8 1.9 D+4.9
May 9-10
5/9-10
TJP Strategies898LV
0.00
48%44%D+4.0 1.0 1.6 D+3.3
Apr 26-29
4/26-29
Emerson College600LV
0.00
45%45%D+0.1 1.0 0.6 D+1.7
Apr 18-19
4/18-19
TJP Strategies1,542LV
0.00
48%44%D+4.0 1.0 1.6 D+3.3
Apr 16-18
4/16-18
OnMessage Inc.
R
600LV
0.00
46%47%R+1.0 1.0 5.7 D+5.7
Apr 9-12
4/9-12
Global Strategy Group
D
0.00
46%44%D+2.0 1.0 1.9 D+1.0
Apr 4-6
4/4-6
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.625RV
0.00
45%44%D+1.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 D+2.0
Mar 5-7
3/5-7
Gravis Marketing931RV
0.00
42%40%D+2.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 D+3.8
Feb 12-Mar 5
2/12-3/5
SurveyMonkey1,938RV
0.00
44%52%R+8.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 R+6.7
Jan 8-9
1/8-9
Public Policy Polling
D
965V
0.00
45%44%D+1.0 0.1 0.1 1.9 R+1.1
Jan 3-4
1/3-4
Remington Research Group1,122LV
0.00
45%49%R+4.0 0.2 4.3 D+0.2
Weighted averageD+0.5
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
Indiana82D+3.0
Kansas72
Ohio70D+11.9
Tennessee70R+4.7
South Carolina68
Kentucky66No race
Iowa63
Arkansas61
Alabama61
North Carolina60No race

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expertrating RatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Toss-up
EVEND+0.6
Inside Elections
Tilt R
R+4.4R+3.5
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Leans R
R+6.7R+7.1
AverageR+3.7R+3.3

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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