Montana

Likely D

6 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (86.4%)

1 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (13.6%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Montana

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+5.7

    Adjusted polls

  • D+5.0

    CANTOR

  • D+12.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+7.7

    Experts

  • D+5.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+8.3

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+8.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Montana

We've collected six polls for the Montana Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Tester
Rosendale
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 17-19
9/17-19
Axis Research
R
480LV
0.70
44%44%EVEN <0.1 6.2 D+6.2
Sep 10-14
9/10-14
YouGov453LV
0.73
47%45%D+2.0 <0.1 2.8 D+4.8
Aug 20-22
8/20-22
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
R
600LV
0.32
45%47%R+2.0 0.3 6.7 D+5.0
Jul 8-10
7/8-10
Remington Research Group2,581LV
0.15
49%46%D+3.0 0.6 2.6 D+6.4
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey929.4LV
0.04
54%44%D+10.6 0.7 2.0 D+13.5
Jun 11-13
6/11-13
Gravis Marketing469LV
0.03
51%44%D+7.0 0.7 1.3 D+9.3

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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