Nebraska

Solid R

1 in 30

Chance the Democrat wins (4.1%)

29 in 30

Chance the Republican wins (95.9%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Nebraska

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+12.9

    Adjusted polls

  • R+12.1

    CANTOR

  • R+15.2

    Fundamentals

  • R+17.7

    Experts

  • R+12.5

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+14.0

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+15.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Nebraska

We've collected two polls for the Nebraska Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Raybould
Fischer
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Jan 24-28
1/24-28
Meeting Street Research
R
500LV
0.50
34%51%R+17.0 0.2 4.1 R+12.6
Nov 10-12
11/10-12
Public Policy Polling
D
1,190V
0.49
31%42%R+11.0 0.3 0.2 1.5 R+13.1

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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