Nevada

Toss-up

5 in 9

Chance the Democrat wins (53.7%)

4 in 9

Chance the Republican wins (46.3%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Nevada

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+0.9

    Adjusted polls

  • R+2.3

    CANTOR

  • D+0.5

    Fundamentals

  • D+1.8

    Experts

  • D+0.9

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+0.7

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+1.0

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Nevada

We've collected 11 polls for the Nevada Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Rosen
Heller
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 7-17
9/7-17
Ipsos1,039LV
1.64
43%46%R+3.0 <0.1 1.3 R+1.7
Sep 11-12
9/11-12
Gravis Marketing700LV
0.94
47%45%D+2.0 <0.1 1.3 D+3.3
Sep 5-10
9/5-10
Suffolk University500LV
0.82
42%41%D+1.0 <0.1 0.7 D+1.7
Aug 20-21
8/20-21
Public Policy Polling
D
528V
0.36
48%43%D+5.0 0.3 0.3 1.5 D+3.5
Jul 24-29
7/24-29
Suffolk University500LV
0.07
40%41%R+1.0 0.5 0.7 D+0.4
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey992.2LV
0.04
49%47%D+1.8 0.7 2.0 D+4.7
Jun 23-26
6/23-26
Gravis Marketing630LV
0.01
45%41%D+4.0 0.7 1.3 D+6.2
Apr 30-May 1
4/30-5/1
Public Policy Polling
D
637V
0.00
44%42%D+2.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 D+1.4
Apr 2-23
4/2-23
SurveyMonkey1,332RV
0.00
50%44%D+6.0 0.6 1.0 2.0 D+8.6
Apr 12-19
4/12-19
Mellman Group600LV
0.01
39%40%R+1.0 1.0 2.3 R+2.0
Mar 15-17
3/15-17
Public Policy Polling
D
720V
0.00
44%39%D+5.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 D+4.1

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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