New Jersey

Likely D

14 in 15

Chance the Democrat wins (92.9%)

1 in 15

Chance the Republican wins (7.1%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in New Jersey

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+6.7

    Adjusted polls

  • D+20.0

    CANTOR

  • D+22.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+17.6

    Experts

  • D+6.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+13.2

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+14.7

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in New Jersey

We've collected six polls for the New Jersey Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Menendez
Hugin
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug 15-20
8/15-20
Quinnipiac University908RV
1.31
43%37%D+6.0 0.6 0.3 1.4 D+4.4
Aug 14-15
8/14-15
Gravis Marketing753LV
0.52
40%30%D+10.0 0.4 1.3 D+11.8
Jul 6-10
7/6-10
Gravis Marketing563LV
0.09
43%41%D+2.0 0.5 1.3 D+4.0
May 16-21
5/16-21
Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)856A
0.10
28%24%D+4.0 1.9 0.9 2.9 D+6.2
Apr 6-10
4/6-10
Monmouth University632RV
0.04
53%32%D+21.0 0.6 0.9 1.4 D+20.1
Mar 8-12
3/8-12
Quinnipiac University1,052RV
0.00
49%32%D+17.0 0.6 0.6 1.4 D+15.8

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

Comments