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New Jersey
Likely D
19 in 20
Chance the Democrat wins (94.6%)
1 in 20
Chance the Republican wins (5.4%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in New Jersey
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+10.1
Adjusted polls
D+19.5
CANTOR
D+22.3
Fundamentals
D+8.4
Experts
D+10.1
Lite
D+11.6
Classic
D+10.5
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We've collected 20 polls for the New Jersey Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
| Adjustments | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | pollster | sample | weight | Menendez | Hugin | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Nov 2-4 11/2-4 | Change Research | 1,006 | LV | 1.94 | 51% | 41% | D+10.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+9.4 |
Oct 29-Nov 4 10/29-11/4 | Quinnipiac University | 1,115 | LV | 2.41 | 55% | 40% | D+15.0 | — |  <0.1 | 1.0 | D+14.1 |
Oct 25-31 10/25-31 | Stockton University | 598 | LV | 1.24 | 51% | 39% | D+12.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.1 | D+13.1 |
Oct 27-29 10/27-29 | Vox Populi Polling | 814 | LV | 1.05 | 54% | 46% | D+8.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.7 | D+8.7 |
Oct 24-26 10/24-26 | Emerson College | 659 | LV | 1.19 | 47% | 42% | D+5.3 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+5.9 |
Oct 12-19 10/12-19 | Rutgers University | 496 | LV | 0.48 | 51% | 46% | D+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.6 | D+6.6 |
Oct 10-16 10/10-16 | Quinnipiac University | 873 | LV | 0.25 | 51% | 44% | D+7.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | D+6.0 |
Oct 11-15 10/11-15 | Monmouth University | 527 | LV | 0.60 | 50% | 39% | D+10.7 | — | <0.1 | 0.2 | D+10.5 |
Oct 6-9 10/6-9 | National Research, Inc. R | 600 | LV | 0.32 | 42% | 40% | D+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 4.5 | D+6.4 |
Oct 2-5 10/2-5 | YouGov | 845 | LV | 0.39 | 49% | 39% | D+10.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | D+12.3 |
Sep 25-Oct 2 9/25-10/2 | Quinnipiac University | 1,058 | LV | 0.07 | 53% | 42% | D+11.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.0 | D+10.0 |
Sep 29-Oct 1 9/29-10/1 | Vox Populi Polling | 794 | LV | 0.06 | 52% | 48% | D+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.7 | D+4.7 |
Sep 26-30 9/26-30 | Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | 508 | LV | 0.23 | 43% | 37% | D+6.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.1 | D+8.0 |
Sep 19-27 9/19-27 | Stockton University | 531 | LV | 0.03 | 45% | 43% | D+1.9 | — | 0.1 | 1.1 | D+2.9 |
Aug 15-20 8/15-20 | Quinnipiac University | 908 | RV | 0.00 | 43% | 37% | D+6.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | D+5.1 |
Aug 14-15 8/14-15 | Gravis Marketing I | 753 | LV | 0.02 | 40% | 30% | D+10.0 | — | 0.4 | 1.4 | D+11.8 |
Jul 6-10 7/6-10 | Gravis Marketing | 563 | LV | 0.00 | 43% | 41% | D+2.0 | — | 0.7 | 1.4 | D+4.1 |
May 16-21 5/16-21 | Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) | 856 | A | 0.00 | 28% | 24% | D+4.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | D+5.7 |
Apr 6-10 4/6-10 | Monmouth University | 632 | RV | 0.00 | 53% | 32% | D+21.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | D+21.7 |
Mar 8-12 3/8-12 | Quinnipiac University | 1,052 | RV | 0.00 | 49% | 32% | D+17.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 | D+16.5 |
Weighted averageD+10.1
See more polls
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
R
D
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | 79 | D+18.8 | |
| New York | 75 | D+24.7 | |
| Massachusetts | 63 | D+23.2 | |
| Maryland | 58 | D+33.6 | |
| Rhode Island | 54 | D+22.2 | |
| Illinois | 54 | — | |
| Delaware | 50 | D+20.8 | |
| Virginia | 37 | D+14.1 | |
| Pennsylvania | 35 | D+11.7 | |
| New Hampshire | 30 | — |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | EVEN | D+0.6 | |
| Inside Elections | D+12.1 | D+13.0 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+12.1 | D+11.7 | |
| Average | D+8.1 | D+8.4 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
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