New York

Solid D

>99 in 100

Chance the Democrat wins (>99.9%)

<1 in 100

Chance the Republican wins (<0.1%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in New York

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+30.1

    Adjusted polls

  • D+23.8

    CANTOR

  • D+39.3

    Fundamentals

  • D+35.3

    Experts

  • D+29.4

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+33.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+34.1

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in New York

We've collected five polls for the New York Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Gillibrand
Farley
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Aug 29-30
8/29-30
Liberty Opinion Research
R
2,783LV
0.95
51%36%D+15.0 0.1 10.9 D+26.0
Jun 4-7
6/4-7
Siena College745LV
0.40
61%28%D+33.0 0.7 0.2 D+34.1
Apr 26-May 1
4/26-5/1
Quinnipiac University1,076RV
0.28
58%23%D+35.0 0.6 0.9 1.4 D+34.1
Apr 8-12
4/8-12
Siena College692RV
0.08
58%27%D+31.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 D+31.7
Mar 11-16
3/11-16
Siena College772RV
0.05
60%24%D+36.0 0.6 0.6 0.2 D+36.4

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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