North Dakota

Toss-up

4 in 7

Chance the Democrat wins (57.7%)

3 in 7

Chance the Republican wins (42.3%)

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# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in North Dakota

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+2.5

    Adjusted polls

  • R+2.3

    CANTOR

  • D+7.5

    Fundamentals

  • D+0.4

    Experts

  • R+2.5

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+1.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+1.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in North Dakota

We've collected five polls for the North Dakota Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Heitkamp
Cramer
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research701LV
1.42
44%48%R+4.0 <0.1 1.6 R+2.4
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey428LV
0.09
45%53%R+7.6 0.7 2.0 R+4.6
Jun 13-15
6/13-15
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.625RV
0.19
44%48%R+4.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 R+3.3
Feb 21-24
2/21-24
Gravis Marketing385RV
0.02
43%40%D+3.0 0.5 0.6 1.0 D+4.3
Feb 18-20
2/18-20
Tarrance Group
R
500LV
0.02
44%49%R+5.0 0.6 4.8 D+0.5

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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