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Ohio
Solid D
29 in 30
Chance the Democrat wins (96.7%)
1 in 30
Chance the Republican wins (3.3%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in Ohio
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+11.9
Adjusted polls
D+8.2
CANTOR
D+9.7
Fundamentals
D+16.5
Experts
D+11.9
Lite
D+11.5
Classic
D+13.2
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We've collected 24 polls for the Ohio Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
| Adjustments | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | pollster | sample | weight | Brown | Renacci | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Nov 2-4 11/2-4 | Change Research | 923 | LV | 1.78 | 53% | 43% | D+10.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+9.4 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Research Co. | 450 | RV | 1.01 | 53% | 39% | D+14.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 |  0.5 | D+14.3 |
Oct 30-31 10/30-31 | Cygnal | 503 | LV | 1.22 | 52% | 42% | D+10.4 | — | <0.1 | 3.6 | D+14.0 |
Oct 29-30 10/29-30 | Gravis Marketing | 789 | LV | 1.31 | 46% | 37% | D+9.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.4 | D+10.4 |
Oct 26-28 10/26-28 | Emerson College | 566 | LV | 1.17 | 49% | 43% | D+5.8 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+6.4 |
Oct 19-27 10/19-27 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1,051 | LV | 0.75 | 51% | 32% | D+19.5 | — | <0.1 | 2.1 | D+17.4 |
Oct 4-8 10/4-8 | Suffolk University | 500 | LV | 0.31 | 54% | 36% | D+17.6 | — | <0.1 | 0.3 | D+17.2 |
Sep 28-Oct 8 9/28-10/8 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1,017 | LV | 0.09 | 50% | 33% | D+16.5 | — | <0.1 | 2.1 | D+14.3 |
Sep 10-Oct 4 9/10-10/4 | University of Akron | 1,000 | A | 0.14 | 43% | 31% | D+12.0 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | D+11.3 |
Sep 18-20 9/18-20 | Triton Polling & Research | 1,003 | LV | 0.15 | 53% | 42% | D+10.2 | — | 0.1 | 2.5 | D+12.6 |
Sep 16-20 9/16-20 | Marist College | 564 | LV | 0.15 | 51% | 37% | D+13.5 | — | 0.1 | 0.5 | D+12.9 |
Sep 13-20 9/13-20 | Ipsos | 1,074 | LV | 0.19 | 50% | 39% | D+10.2 | — | 0.1 | 0.6 | D+10.7 |
Sep 5-15 9/5-15 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1,048 | LV | 0.01 | 49% | 32% | D+17.0 | — | 0.1 | 2.1 | D+14.7 |
Sep 2-11 9/2-11 | Morning Consult | 1,592 | RV | 0.10 | 47% | 31% | D+16.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | D+16.4 |
Aug 31-Sep 4 8/31-9/4 | Change Research D | 822 | LV | 0.00 | 46% | 42% | D+4.4 | — | 0.1 | 1.5 | D+2.8 |
Jun 11-Jul 2 6/11-7/2 | SurveyMonkey | 858 | LV | 0.00 | 50% | 47% | D+3.4 | — | 0.8 | 1.0 | D+5.2 |
Jun 17-22 6/17-22 | Marist College | 778 | RV | 0.00 | 51% | 38% | D+13.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | D+13.1 |
Jun 7-12 6/7-12 | Quinnipiac University | 1,082 | V | 0.00 | 51% | 34% | D+17.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | D+16.8 |
Jun 6-11 6/6-11 | Suffolk University | 500 | LV | 0.00 | 53% | 37% | D+16.8 | — | 0.9 | 0.3 | D+17.4 |
May 29-31 5/29-31 | America First Policies R | 400 | LV | 0.00 | 45% | 41% | D+4.0 | — | 1.0 | 4.5 | D+9.5 |
May 21-25 5/21-25 | Fallon Research & Communications | 800 | RV | 0.00 | 48% | 34% | D+14.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 | D+14.1 |
Mar 16-20 3/16-20 | SurveyUSA | 1,408 | RV | 0.00 | 52% | 38% | D+14.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | D+14.5 |
Feb 28-Mar 9 2/28-3/9 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1,011 | RV | 0.00 | 41% | 29% | D+12.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | D+10.3 |
Feb 12-Mar 5 2/12-3/5 | SurveyMonkey | 1,995 | RV | 0.00 | 50% | 45% | D+5.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | D+6.3 |
Weighted averageD+11.9
See more polls
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
R
D
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 81 | D+10.7 | |
| Pennsylvania | 79 | D+11.7 | |
| Indiana | 78 | D+3.0 | |
| Wisconsin | 74 | D+12.2 | |
| Iowa | 71 | — | |
| Missouri | 70 | D+0.5 | |
| Minnesota (special) | 61 | D+8.5 | |
| Minnesota | 61 | D+20.4 | |
| North Carolina | 58 | No race | |
| Kansas | 57 | — |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | D+12.1 | D+12.7 | |
| Inside Elections | D+24.1 | D+25.0 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+12.1 | D+11.7 | |
| Average | D+16.1 | D+16.5 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
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