Ohio

Solid D

29 in 30

Chance the Democrat wins (96.0%)

1 in 30

Chance the Republican wins (4.0%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Ohio

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+14.1

    Adjusted polls

  • D+10.1

    CANTOR

  • D+9.7

    Fundamentals

  • D+12.1

    Experts

  • D+14.1

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+12.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+12.6

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Ohio

We've collected 12 polls for the Ohio Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Brown
Renacci
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 18-20
9/18-20
Triton Polling & Research1,003LV
1.20
53%42%D+10.2 <0.1 3.4 D+13.6
Sep 5-15
9/5-15
Baldwin Wallace University1,048LV
0.89
49%32%D+17.0 <0.1 0.6 D+16.4
Sep 2-11
9/2-11
Morning Consult1,592RV
1.02
47%31%D+16.0 0.6 <0.1 1.2 D+16.5
Aug 31-Sep 4
8/31-9/4
Change Research
D
822LV
0.45
46%42%D+4.4 0.1 1.1 D+5.6
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey857.8LV
0.03
50%47%D+3.4 0.7 2.0 D+6.3
Jun 17-22
6/17-22
Marist College778RV
0.08
51%38%D+13.0 0.6 0.7 1.1 D+12.2
Jun 7-12
6/7-12
Quinnipiac University1,082V
0.07
51%34%D+17.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 D+16.3
Jun 6-11
6/6-11
Suffolk University500LV
0.04
53%37%D+16.8 0.7 0.7 D+18.5
May 21-25
5/21-25
Fallon Research & Communications800RV
0.03
48%34%D+14.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 D+14.1
Mar 16-20
3/16-20
SurveyUSA1,408RV
0.01
52%38%D+14.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 D+14.8
Feb 28-Mar 9
2/28-3/9
Baldwin Wallace University1,011RV
0.00
41%29%D+12.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 D+11.5
Feb 12-Mar 5
2/12-3/5
SurveyMonkey1,995RV
0.00
50%45%D+5.0 0.6 0.5 2.0 D+7.0

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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