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Pennsylvania
Solid D
29 in 30
Chance the Democrat wins (96.9%)
1 in 30
Chance the Republican wins (3.1%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in Pennsylvania
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
D+11.7
Adjusted polls
D+11.5
CANTOR
D+10.3
Fundamentals
D+20.5
Experts
D+11.7
Lite
D+11.4
Classic
D+14.4
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We've collected 19 polls for the Pennsylvania Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
| Adjustments | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | pollster | sample | weight | Casey | Barletta | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Nov 2-4 11/2-4 | Change Research | 1,833 | LV | 2.37 | 51% | 44% | D+7.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | D+6.4 |
Nov 1-3 11/1-3 | Research Co. | 450 | RV | 1.00 | 56% | 39% | D+17.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 |  0.5 | D+17.3 |
Oct 28-Nov 1 10/28-11/1 | Muhlenberg College | 421 | LV | 1.21 | 54% | 40% | D+14.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.9 | D+13.1 |
Oct 22-28 10/22-28 | Franklin & Marshall College | 214 | LV | 0.40 | 50% | 35% | D+15.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.1 | D+13.9 |
Oct 1-2 10/1-2 | Morning Consult | 1,188 | RV | 0.32 | 47% | 32% | D+15.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 | 0.7 | D+15.5 |
Sep 17-23 9/17-23 | Franklin & Marshall College | 204 | LV | 0.01 | 50% | 33% | D+17.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.1 | D+15.8 |
Sep 13-19 9/13-19 | Muhlenberg College | 404 | LV | 0.01 | 53% | 35% | D+18.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.9 | D+17.0 |
Sep 12-19 9/12-19 | Ipsos | 1,080 | LV | 0.18 | 53% | 37% | D+15.6 | — | 0.1 | 0.6 | D+16.1 |
Sep 12-13 9/12-13 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 800 | LV | 0.10 | 52% | 38% | D+14.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.8 | D+15.7 |
Aug 20-26 8/20-26 | Franklin & Marshall College | 222 | LV | 0.00 | 47% | 34% | D+13.0 | — | 0.2 | 1.1 | D+12.1 |
Aug 12-16 8/12-16 | Marist College | 713 | RV | 0.03 | 53% | 38% | D+15.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | D+14.7 |
Aug 13-15 8/13-15 | Commonwealth Leaders Fund R | 2,012 | LV | 0.02 | 47% | 45% | D+1.9 | — | 0.4 | 7.6 | D+9.8 |
Jun 11-Jul 2 6/11-7/2 | SurveyMonkey | 892 | LV | 0.00 | 54% | 43% | D+11.6 | — | 0.8 | 1.0 | D+13.4 |
Jun 21-25 6/21-25 | Suffolk University | 500 | LV | 0.00 | 47% | 32% | D+15.4 | — | 0.8 | 0.3 | D+15.8 |
Jun 4-10 6/4-10 | Franklin & Marshall College | 472 | RV | 0.00 | 44% | 27% | D+17.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | D+16.6 |
Apr 4-12 4/4-12 | Muhlenberg College | 414 | RV | 0.00 | 48% | 32% | D+16.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | D+15.9 |
Mar 19-26 3/19-26 | Franklin & Marshall College | 423 | RV | 0.00 | 43% | 25% | D+18.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.1 | D+17.6 |
Mar 15-16 3/15-16 | Public Policy Polling D | 1,056 | V | 0.00 | 54% | 36% | D+18.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | D+16.8 |
Feb 12-Mar 5 2/12-3/5 | SurveyMonkey | 2,165 | RV | 0.00 | 52% | 43% | D+9.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | D+10.3 |
Weighted averageD+11.7
See more polls
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
R
D
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | 79 | D+11.9 | |
| Michigan | 76 | D+10.7 | |
| Wisconsin | 75 | D+12.2 | |
| Iowa | 62 | — | |
| Minnesota (special) | 61 | D+8.5 | |
| Minnesota | 61 | D+20.4 | |
| Indiana | 61 | D+3.0 | |
| New Hampshire | 59 | — | |
| Delaware | 58 | D+20.8 | |
| Virginia | 58 | D+14.1 |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | D+12.1 | D+12.7 | |
| Inside Elections | D+24.1 | D+25.0 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | D+24.1 | D+23.7 | |
| Average | D+20.1 | D+20.5 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
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