Pennsylvania

Solid D

29 in 30

Chance the Democrat wins (96.8%)

1 in 30

Chance the Republican wins (3.2%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Pennsylvania

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+14.5

    Adjusted polls

  • D+13.2

    CANTOR

  • D+11.0

    Fundamentals

  • D+17.6

    Experts

  • D+14.5

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • D+13.5

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • D+14.8

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Pennsylvania

We've collected 12 polls for the Pennsylvania Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Casey
Barletta
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 13-19
9/13-19
Muhlenberg College404LV
0.96
53%35%D+18.0 <0.1 1.8 D+16.2
Sep 12-13
9/12-13
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research800LV
0.99
52%38%D+14.0 <0.1 1.1 D+15.1
Aug 20-26
8/20-26
Franklin & Marshall College222LV
0.21
47%34%D+13.0 0.2 0.7 D+12.6
Aug 12-16
8/12-16
Marist College713RV
0.46
53%38%D+15.0 0.6 0.4 1.1 D+13.8
Aug 13-15
8/13-15
Commonwealth Leaders Fund
R
2,012LV
0.34
47%45%D+1.9 0.4 7.9 D+10.3
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey892.2LV
0.04
54%43%D+11.6 0.6 2.0 D+14.5
Jun 21-25
6/21-25
Suffolk University500LV
0.07
47%32%D+15.4 0.6 0.7 D+16.9
Jun 4-10
6/4-10
Franklin & Marshall College472RV
0.00
44%27%D+17.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 D+16.6
Apr 4-12
4/4-12
Muhlenberg College414RV
0.00
48%32%D+16.0 0.6 0.9 1.8 D+14.7
Mar 19-26
3/19-26
Franklin & Marshall College423RV
0.00
43%25%D+18.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 D+17.6
Mar 15-16
3/15-16
Public Policy Polling
D
1,056V
0.00
54%36%D+18.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 D+17.0
Feb 12-Mar 5
2/12-3/5
SurveyMonkey2,165RV
0.00
52%43%D+9.0 0.6 0.5 2.0 D+11.0

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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