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Tennessee
Likely R
1 in 5
Chance the Democrat wins (19.6%)
4 in 5
Chance the Republican wins (80.4%)
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean
# What goes into the classic forecast in Tennessee
The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.
R+4.7
Adjusted polls
R+10.5
CANTOR
R+12.4
Fundamentals
R+4.1
Experts
R+4.7
Lite
R+5.4
Classic
R+4.9
Deluxe
<0.1
<0.1
Historical adjustment
Key
More weight
Less
#Latest polls
We've collected 36 polls for the Tennessee Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.
| Adjustments | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dates | pollster | sample | weight | Bredesen | Blackburn | margin | likely voter | Time-line | House effects | Adjusted margin | |
Oct 28-31 10/28-31 | Targoz Market Research | 480 | LV | 1.01 | 49% | 49% | EVEN | — |  <0.1 | 1.5 | D+1.6 |
Oct 28-30 10/28-30 | Emerson College | 632 | LV | 1.78 | 44% | 52% | R+8.4 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | R+7.8 |
Oct 27-30 10/27-30 | Fox News | 718 | LV | 2.07 | 41% | 50% | R+9.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | R+7.5 |
Oct 27-29 10/27-29 | Vox Populi Polling | 780 | LV | 1.33 | 47% | 53% | R+6.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.7 | R+5.3 |
Oct 24-29 10/24-29 | CNN/SSRS | 764 | LV | 1.67 | 45% | 49% | R+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.8 | R+4.8 |
Oct 22-29 10/22-29 | East Tennessee State University | 495 | LV | 1.07 | 44% | 44% | EVEN | — | <0.1 | 0.2 | R+0.2 |
Oct 26-27 10/26-27 | Cygnal | 497 | LV | 1.16 | 45% | 51% | R+5.8 | — | <0.1 | 3.6 | R+2.2 |
Oct 23-27 10/23-27 | Marist College | 471 | LV | 1.24 | 46% | 51% | R+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.5 | R+5.5 |
Oct 8-13 10/8-13 | SSRS | 800 | RV | 0.30 | 44% | 43% | D+1.0 | 0.2 | <0.1 | 0.8 | R+0.0 |
Oct 9-12 10/9-12 | Targoz Market Research | 558 | LV | 0.18 | 48% | 52% | R+4.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | R+2.5 |
Oct 8-11 10/8-11 | Siena College/New York Times | 593 | LV | 0.66 | 40% | 54% | R+14.4 | — | <0.1 | 0.3 | R+14.7 |
Oct 4-11 10/4-11 | Ipsos | 1,108 | LV | 0.77 | 44% | 47% | R+3.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.6 | R+2.4 |
Oct 2-5 10/2-5 | YouGov | 871 | LV | 0.51 | 42% | 50% | R+8.0 | — | <0.1 | 2.3 | R+5.7 |
Sep 29-Oct 2 9/29-10/2 | Fox News | 666 | LV | 0.12 | 43% | 48% | R+5.0 | — | <0.1 | 1.5 | R+3.5 |
Sep 23-25 9/23-25 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group D | 600 | LV | 0.21 | 47% | 45% | D+2.0 | — | 0.1 | 3.1 | R+1.2 |
Sep 9-24 9/9-24 | SurveyMonkey | 1,609 | RV | 0.10 | 42% | 42% | EVEN | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | D+0.7 |
Sep 16-18 9/16-18 | Vox Populi Polling | 567 | LV | 0.02 | 51% | 49% | D+2.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.7 | D+2.6 |
Sep 11-15 9/11-15 | CNN/SSRS | 723 | LV | 0.02 | 50% | 45% | D+5.0 | — | 0.1 | 0.8 | D+4.1 |
Sep 10-12 9/10-12 | Triton Polling & Research | 1,038 | LV | 0.14 | 45% | 48% | R+3.3 | — | 0.1 | 2.5 | R+1.0 |
Sep 8-11 9/8-11 | Fox News | 686 | LV | 0.02 | 44% | 47% | R+3.0 | — | 0.1 | 1.5 | R+1.6 |
Aug 25-28 8/25-28 | Marist College | 538 | LV | 0.01 | 48% | 46% | D+2.0 | — | <0.1 | 0.5 | D+1.5 |
Aug 9-11 8/9-11 | Gravis Marketing | 620 | LV | 0.02 | 44% | 48% | R+4.0 | — | 0.4 | 1.4 | R+2.2 |
Jul 11-14 7/11-14 | Emerson College | 657 | RV | 0.00 | 43% | 37% | D+6.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | D+7.0 |
Jul 10-11 7/10-11 | Public Policy Polling D | 583 | LV | 0.01 | 44% | 41% | D+3.0 | — | 0.6 | 1.9 | D+1.7 |
Jul 9-11 7/9-11 | WPA Intelligence R | 551 | LV | 0.00 | 35% | 38% | R+3.0 | — | 0.6 | 6.5 | D+4.1 |
Jun 11-Jul 2 6/11-7/2 | SurveyMonkey | 918 | LV | 0.00 | 40% | 58% | R+18.0 | — | 0.8 | 1.0 | R+16.3 |
Apr 30-May 1 4/30-5/1 | Public Policy Polling D | 609 | V | 0.00 | 46% | 43% | D+3.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | D+2.0 |
Apr 2-23 4/2-23 | SurveyMonkey | 1,638 | RV | 0.00 | 48% | 47% | D+1.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | D+2.8 |
Apr 17-19 4/17-19 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. | 625 | RV | 0.00 | 46% | 43% | D+3.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | D+4.1 |
Apr 9-11 4/9-11 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group D | 601 | LV | 0.00 | 51% | 41% | D+10.0 | — | 1.0 | 3.1 | D+7.9 |
Mar 22-29 3/22-29 | Middle Tennessee State University | 600 | RV | 0.00 | 45% | 35% | D+10.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.8 | D+6.8 |
Mar 15-16 3/15-16 | Public Policy Polling D | 1,014 | V | 0.00 | 46% | 41% | D+5.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | D+3.8 |
Feb 13-15 2/13-15 | WPA Intelligence R | 500 | LV | 0.00 | 39% | 44% | R+5.0 | — | 0.4 | 6.5 | D+1.9 |
Jan 21-24 1/21-24 | Triton Polling & Research | 1,003 | LV | 0.00 | 40% | 51% | R+11.0 | — | 0.1 | 2.5 | R+8.4 |
Dec 13-17 12/13-17 | WPA Intelligence R | 500 | LV | 0.00 | 34% | 43% | R+9.0 | — | 0.4 | 6.5 | R+2.9 |
Dec 11-12 12/11-12 | Gravis Marketing | 563 | RV | 0.00 | 42% | 40% | D+2.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 | D+2.8 |
Weighted averageR+4.7
See more polls
Key
A = adults
RV = Registered voters
V = voters
LV = likely voters
R
D
= partisan poll
Our latest coverage
#Similar states and CANTOR
Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.
| Sim. score | Polling avg. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 80 | — | |
| South Carolina | 80 | — | |
| Arkansas | 77 | — | |
| Kentucky | 72 | No race | |
| Oklahoma | 72 | — | |
| Missouri | 70 | D+0.5 | |
| North Carolina | 68 | No race | |
| Indiana | 62 | D+3.0 | |
| Louisiana | 62 | No race | |
| Georgia | 61 | — | |
| Mississippi (special) | 54 | R+17.0 |
#Expert ratings
The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.
| Equivalent Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Expert | rating Rating | Raw | Adjusted |
| Cook Political Report | EVEN | D+0.6 | |
| Inside Elections | R+6.7 | R+5.8 | |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | R+6.7 | R+7.1 | |
| Average | R+4.5 | R+4.1 | |
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …
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