Tennessee

Toss-up

2 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (40.5%)

3 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (59.5%)

us_map2See the national overview

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Tennessee

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • D+1.2

    Adjusted polls

  • R+9.5

    CANTOR

  • R+13.8

    Fundamentals

  • R+2.8

    Experts

  • D+1.2

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+1.9

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+2.2

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls in Tennessee

We've collected 19 polls for the Tennessee Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Bredesen
Blackburn
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Sep 11-15
9/11-15
SSRS723LV
1.41
50%45%D+5.0 <0.1 0.7 D+4.3
Sep 10-12
9/10-12
Triton Polling & Research1,038LV
1.10
45%48%R+3.3 <0.1 4.3 D+1.0
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Co. Research686LV
1.32
44%47%R+3.0 <0.1 1.6 R+1.4
Aug 25-28
8/25-28
Marist College538LV
0.71
48%46%D+2.0 0.1 1.1 D+1.0
Aug 9-11
8/9-11
Gravis Marketing620LV
0.31
44%48%R+4.0 0.4 1.3 R+2.1
Jul 11-14
7/11-14
Emerson College657RV
0.16
43%37%D+6.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 D+4.9
Jul 10-11
7/10-11
Public Policy Polling
D
583LV
0.11
44%41%D+3.0 0.5 1.6 D+2.1
Jul 9-11
7/9-11
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
R
551LV
0.10
35%38%R+3.0 0.5 7.1 D+4.8
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey918.2LV
0.04
40%58%R+18.0 0.6 2.0 R+15.1
Apr 30-May 1
4/30-5/1
Public Policy Polling
D
609V
0.00
46%43%D+3.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 D+2.4
Apr 2-23
4/2-23
SurveyMonkey1,638RV
0.00
48%47%D+1.0 0.5 0.9 2.0 D+3.7
Apr 17-19
4/17-19
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.625RV
0.01
46%43%D+3.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 D+3.9
Apr 9-11
4/9-11
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
D
601LV
0.01
51%41%D+10.0 0.9 4.0 D+7.2
Mar 22-29
3/22-29
Middle Tennessee State University600RV
0.01
45%35%D+10.0 0.5 0.7 3.0 D+7.5
Mar 15-16
3/15-16
Public Policy Polling
D
1,014V
0.00
46%41%D+5.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 D+4.1
Feb 13-15
2/13-15
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
R
500LV
0.00
39%44%R+5.0 0.4 7.1 D+2.7
Jan 21-24
1/21-24
Triton Polling & Research1,003LV
0.00
40%51%R+11.0 0.2 4.3 R+6.4
Dec 13-17
12/13-17
Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
R
500LV
0.00
34%43%R+9.0 0.2 7.1 R+2.1
Dec 11-12
12/11-12
Gravis Marketing563RV
0.00
42%40%D+2.0 0.5 0.2 1.3 D+2.6

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

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