1 in 5

Chance the Democrat wins (19.6%)

4 in 5

Chance the Republican wins (80.4%)

us_map2See the national overview
Forecasted turnout
Partisan lean

# What goes into the
icon_classic_2
classic forecast in Tennessee

The Classic version of our model projects a race’s outcome by taking a weighted average of polls of the race (if available), polls of similar races (CANTOR) and non-polling factors (fundamentals). It is then reverted toward a mean based on long-term trends in midterms and presidential approval ratings.

  • R+4.7

    Adjusted polls

  • R+10.5

    CANTOR

  • R+12.4

    Fundamentals

  • R+4.1

    Experts

  • R+4.7

    icon_lite_2

    Lite

  • R+5.4

    icon_classic_2

    Classic

  • R+4.9

    icon_deluxe_2

    Deluxe

  • <0.1

  • <0.1

Historical adjustment

Key

More weight

Less

#Latest polls

We've collected 36 polls for the Tennessee Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

Adjustments
datespollstersampleweight
Bredesen
Blackburn
marginlikely voterTime-lineHouse effects Adjusted margin
Oct 28-31
10/28-31
Targoz Market Research480LV
1.01
49%49%EVEN <0.1 1.5 D+1.6
Oct 28-30
10/28-30
Emerson College632LV
1.78
44%52%R+8.4 <0.1 0.6 R+7.8
Oct 27-30
10/27-30
Fox News718LV
2.07
41%50%R+9.0 <0.1 1.5 R+7.5
Oct 27-29
10/27-29
Vox Populi Polling780LV
1.33
47%53%R+6.0 <0.1 0.7 R+5.3
Oct 24-29
10/24-29
CNN/SSRS764LV
1.67
45%49%R+4.0 <0.1 0.8 R+4.8
Oct 22-29
10/22-29
East Tennessee State University495LV
1.07
44%44%EVEN <0.1 0.2 R+0.2
Oct 26-27
10/26-27
Cygnal497LV
1.16
45%51%R+5.8 <0.1 3.6 R+2.2
Oct 23-27
10/23-27
Marist College471LV
1.24
46%51%R+5.0 <0.1 0.5 R+5.5
Oct 8-13
10/8-13
SSRS800RV
0.30
44%43%D+1.0 0.2 <0.1 0.8 R+0.0
Oct 9-12
10/9-12
Targoz Market Research558LV
0.18
48%52%R+4.0 <0.1 1.5 R+2.5
Oct 8-11
10/8-11
Siena College/New York Times593LV
0.66
40%54%R+14.4 <0.1 0.3 R+14.7
Oct 4-11
10/4-11
Ipsos1,108LV
0.77
44%47%R+3.0 <0.1 0.6 R+2.4
Oct 2-5
10/2-5
YouGov871LV
0.51
42%50%R+8.0 <0.1 2.3 R+5.7
Sep 29-Oct 2
9/29-10/2
Fox News666LV
0.12
43%48%R+5.0 <0.1 1.5 R+3.5
Sep 23-25
9/23-25
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
D
600LV
0.21
47%45%D+2.0 0.1 3.1 R+1.2
Sep 9-24
9/9-24
SurveyMonkey1,609RV
0.10
42%42%EVEN 0.2 0.1 1.0 D+0.7
Sep 16-18
9/16-18
Vox Populi Polling567LV
0.02
51%49%D+2.0 0.1 0.7 D+2.6
Sep 11-15
9/11-15
CNN/SSRS723LV
0.02
50%45%D+5.0 0.1 0.8 D+4.1
Sep 10-12
9/10-12
Triton Polling & Research1,038LV
0.14
45%48%R+3.3 0.1 2.5 R+1.0
Sep 8-11
9/8-11
Fox News686LV
0.02
44%47%R+3.0 0.1 1.5 R+1.6
Aug 25-28
8/25-28
Marist College538LV
0.01
48%46%D+2.0 <0.1 0.5 D+1.5
Aug 9-11
8/9-11
Gravis Marketing620LV
0.02
44%48%R+4.0 0.4 1.4 R+2.2
Jul 11-14
7/11-14
Emerson College657RV
0.00
43%37%D+6.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 D+7.0
Jul 10-11
7/10-11
Public Policy Polling
D
583LV
0.01
44%41%D+3.0 0.6 1.9 D+1.7
Jul 9-11
7/9-11
WPA Intelligence
R
551LV
0.00
35%38%R+3.0 0.6 6.5 D+4.1
Jun 11-Jul 2
6/11-7/2
SurveyMonkey918LV
0.00
40%58%R+18.0 0.8 1.0 R+16.3
Apr 30-May 1
4/30-5/1
Public Policy Polling
D
609V
0.00
46%43%D+3.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 D+2.0
Apr 2-23
4/2-23
SurveyMonkey1,638RV
0.00
48%47%D+1.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 D+2.8
Apr 17-19
4/17-19
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.625RV
0.00
46%43%D+3.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 D+4.1
Apr 9-11
4/9-11
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
D
601LV
0.00
51%41%D+10.0 1.0 3.1 D+7.9
Mar 22-29
3/22-29
Middle Tennessee State University600RV
0.00
45%35%D+10.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 D+6.8
Mar 15-16
3/15-16
Public Policy Polling
D
1,014V
0.00
46%41%D+5.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 D+3.8
Feb 13-15
2/13-15
WPA Intelligence
R
500LV
0.00
39%44%R+5.0 0.4 6.5 D+1.9
Jan 21-24
1/21-24
Triton Polling & Research1,003LV
0.00
40%51%R+11.0 0.1 2.5 R+8.4
Dec 13-17
12/13-17
WPA Intelligence
R
500LV
0.00
34%43%R+9.0 0.4 6.5 R+2.9
Dec 11-12
12/11-12
Gravis Marketing563RV
0.00
42%40%D+2.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 D+2.8
Weighted averageR+4.7
See more polls

Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R
D

= partisan poll

Our latest coverage

#Similar states and CANTOR

Our state similarity scores are based on demographic, geographic and political characteristics; if two states have a score of 100, it means they are perfectly identical. These scores inform a system we use — CANTOR, or Congressional Algorithm using Neighboring Typologies to Optimize Regression — to infer what polling would say in unpolled or lightly polled states, given what it says in similar states.

Sim. scorePolling avg.
Alabama80
South Carolina80
Arkansas77
Kentucky72No race
Oklahoma72
Missouri70D+0.5
North Carolina68No race
Indiana62D+3.0
Louisiana62No race
Georgia61
Mississippi (special)54R+17.0

#Expert ratings

The Deluxe version of our model calculates an implied margin for each race based on expert race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball; it then adjusts that margin toward its estimate of the national political environment.

Equivalent Margin
Expertrating RatingRaw Adjusted
Cook Political Report
Toss-up
EVEND+0.6
Inside Elections
Lean R
R+6.7R+5.8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Leans R
R+6.7R+7.1
AverageR+4.5R+4.1

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterm forecasts. Read more …

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