Texas

We've collected 40 polls for the Texas Senate election. We’re adjusting poll results in three ways: Polls of registered voters or all adults are adjusted to a likely-voter basis; older polls are adjusted based on shifts in the generic congressional ballot since the poll was conducted; and polls are adjusted for house effects (the tendency for a firm’s polls to lean toward Democrats or Republicans). Polls with larger sample sizes and those conducted by higher-quality polling agencies are given more weight, as are more recent polls.

								Adjustments
dates	pollster	sample		weight	O'Rourke	Cruz	margin	likely voter	Time-line	House effects	Adjusted margin
Nov 3-5 11/3-5	Trafalgar Group	2,135	LV	2.46	43%	52%	R+8.9	—	<0.1	1.4	R+7.5
Nov 1-2 11/1-2	Change Research D	1,211	LV	1.30	49%	49%	EVEN	—	<0.1	1.5	R+1.5
Oct 28-30 10/28-30	Emerson College	781	LV	1.55	47%	50%	R+3.1	—	<0.1	0.6	R+2.5
Oct 22-28 10/22-28	Quinnipiac University	1,078	LV	1.50	46%	51%	R+5.0	—	<0.1	1.0	R+5.9
Oct 15-28 10/15-28	University of Texas - Tyler	905	LV	0.83	43%	47%	R+3.6	—	<0.1	0.3	R+3.9
Oct 25-26 10/25-26	Dixie Strategies	588	LV	0.88	42%	52%	R+10.0	—	<0.1	1.1	R+8.9
Oct 18-21 10/18-21	GBA Strategies D	1,000	LV	0.72	46%	50%	R+4.0	—	<0.1	2.1	R+6.1
Oct 15-21 10/15-21	YouGov	927	LV	0.71	45%	51%	R+6.0	—	<0.1	2.3	R+3.7
Oct 12-18 10/12-18	Ipsos	1,298	LV	0.87	44%	49%	R+4.5	—	<0.1	0.6	R+3.9
Oct 10-14 10/10-14	Tulchin Research D	600	LV	0.34	45%	49%	R+4.0	—	<0.1	5.3	R+9.3
Oct 9-13 10/9-13	CNN/SSRS	716	LV	0.55	45%	52%	R+7.0	—	<0.1	0.8	R+7.8
Oct 8-13 10/8-13	WPA Intelligence R	801	LV	0.37	43%	52%	R+9.0	—	<0.1	6.5	R+2.5
Oct 8-11 10/8-11	Siena College/New York Times	800	LV	0.64	43%	51%	R+8.1	—	<0.1	0.3	R+8.4
Oct 3-9 10/3-9	Quinnipiac University	730	LV	0.14	45%	54%	R+9.0	—	<0.1	1.0	R+10.0
Oct 2-5 10/2-5	YouGov	881	LV	0.16	44%	50%	R+6.0	—	<0.1	2.3	R+3.7
Oct 1-5 10/1-5	Emerson College	500	LV	0.07	42%	47%	R+4.6	—	<0.1	0.6	R+4.0
Sep 19-20 9/19-20	Public Policy Polling D	613	V	0.07	45%	48%	R+3.0	0.1	0.1	1.9	R+5.1
Sep 19-20 9/19-20	Public Policy Polling D	603	V	0.07	46%	49%	R+3.0	0.1	0.1	1.9	R+5.1
Sep 16-18 9/16-18	Vox Populi Polling	508	LV	0.09	50%	50%	EVEN	—	0.1	0.7	D+0.6
Sep 11-17 9/11-17	Quinnipiac University	807	LV	0.02	45%	54%	R+9.0	—	0.1	1.0	R+10.1
Sep 6-14 9/6-14	Ipsos	992	LV	0.02	47%	45%	D+2.0	—	0.1	0.6	D+2.5
Sep 11-12 9/11-12	Reform Austin D	1,161	LV	0.07	45%	49%	R+4.0	—	0.1	2.5	R+6.6
Sep 6-9 9/6-9	Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	800	LV	0.07	44%	47%	R+3.0	—	0.1	1.8	R+1.3
Sep 6-7 9/6-7	Dixie Strategies	519	LV	0.01	42%	46%	R+4.1	—	0.1	1.1	R+3.2
Aug 22-25 8/22-25	Emerson College	550	RV	0.00	37%	38%	R+0.6	0.2	0.1	0.6	R+0.0
Aug 12-16 8/12-16	Marist College	759	RV	0.03	45%	49%	R+4.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	R+4.3
Aug 1-2 8/1-2	Public Policy Polling D	797	V	0.00	42%	46%	R+4.0	0.1	0.6	1.9	R+5.4
Jul 26-31 7/26-31	Quinnipiac University	1,118	RV	0.00	43%	49%	R+6.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	R+6.5
Jul 9-25 7/9-25	Texas Lyceum	441	LV	0.00	39%	41%	R+2.0	—	0.6	1.0	R+2.3
Jul 3-7 7/3-7	Gravis Marketing	602	LV	0.00	42%	51%	R+9.0	—	0.7	1.4	R+6.9
Jun 19-22 6/19-22	YouGov	821	LV	0.00	40%	50%	R+10.0	—	0.8	2.3	R+6.9
Jun 8-17 6/8-17	YouGov	1,200	RV	0.00	36%	41%	R+5.0	0.2	0.9	2.3	R+2.0
May 29-Jun 5 5/29-6/5	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner D	1,000	LV	0.00	43%	49%	R+6.0	—	0.9	1.7	R+6.8
May 23-29 5/23-29	Quinnipiac University	961	RV	0.00	39%	50%	R+11.0	0.2	1.0	1.0	R+11.2
May 21-28 5/21-28	Baselice & Associates Inc. R	601	LV	0.00	36%	48%	R+12.0	—	1.0	4.9	R+6.1
May 21-22 5/21-22	Public Policy Polling D	861	V	0.00	42%	48%	R+6.0	0.1	1.0	1.9	R+7.0
May 19-21 5/19-21	JMC Enterprises R	575	LV	0.00	40%	47%	R+7.0	—	1.0	3.1	R+2.8
Apr 12-17 4/12-17	Quinnipiac University	1,029	RV	0.00	44%	47%	R+3.0	0.2	1.1	1.0	R+3.1
Jan 17-18 1/17-18	Public Policy Polling D	757	V	0.00	37%	45%	R+8.0	0.1	0.1	1.9	R+9.9
Dec 12-14 12/12-14	WPA Intelligence R	600	LV	0.00	34%	52%	R+18.0	—	0.4	6.5	R+11.9

Weighted averageR+5.3

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Key

A = adults

RV = Registered voters

V = voters

LV = likely voters

R

D

= partisan poll